On his first day back in office, Donald Trump signed an executive order telling federal agencies, including the State Department, not to recognize identities other than male or female, including when issuing passports.

If, in 2026, there is a two week period where at least a dozen transgender citizens CANNOT(!) acquire/renew passports, this resolves NO. If a motivated trans person (who is willing to check whatever box will get them out of the country on a government form) can basically always get a passport and use it to leave the country, this resolves YES.

If being transgender starts to be criminalized such that at least a dozen people are imprisoned (for at least two weeks) because of their gender identity, this resolves NO. If it's technically possible, but being trans means there's a much higher burden, such that a large number of motivated people will de facto be unable to get passports, this also resolves NO.

• Update 2025-02-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Misgendering as a Method:

  • If a transgender person can straightforwardly acquire a passport by selecting or using a misgendered option, then this meets the criteria for a YES resolution.

  • The key factor is that the passport, regardless of how it is issued, must enable the individual to easily leave the country.