Damn!! Accidentally bought YES at 1 percent and got buried quickly!!! Damn!!!!!

Starting to seem unlikely!

@ScottLawrence Aye. But the discounting rate on "almost certain" end of year markets seems to be about 4 to 5% (e.g. Whether Biden is president at EOY.)

Richard Haas just said on Morning Joe Khamenei is on his deathbed. He would have the connections required to have reliable information on that, but that is my only source so far.

Created a reasonably related market to also capture possiblity of resignation, overthrow, etc.

Circumstantial evidence suggests that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is at least temporarily unable to perform his normal duties.

Khamenei has been unusually absent in recent days amidst countrywide, anti-regime protests, which began on September 16. Rumors have circulated that Khamenei’s health has deteriorated significantly since early September.[1] CTP cannot verify these rumors about Khamenei’s health, and such reports should be treated with skepticism. There are indications that Khamenei is ill or incapacitated, however. Regime power centers are behaving as if succession is either imminent or underway. President Ebrahim Raisi—a prominent frontrunner to succeed Khamenei—is positioning himself to become the next supreme leader with support from senior officers from the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC).

https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-crisis-update-september-28