Which country will next have a successful coup?
139
1.6K
9.9K
2025
17%
Other
7%
Myanmar
5%
Chad
5%
Guatemala
5%
Burkina Faso
4%
Palestinian National Authority (Fatah-controlled government in West Bank areas "A" and "B" )
3%
Haiti
3%
Senegal
3%
Mali
3%
South Sudan
3%
Russia
2%
Central African Republic
2%
Sierra Leon
1.9%
Republic of the Congo
1.5%
Equatorial Guinea
1.3%
Somalia
1.2%
The Gambia
1.1%
Sudan
1.1%
DR Congo
1.1%
Yemen

Auto-coups/self-coups count.

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Palestinian National Authority (Fatah-controlled government in West Bank areas "A" and "B" )

Lol why is this the highest non-other? Y'all realize that the IDF would never let it happen

Would the US Supreme Court's 2000 appointment of Bush, who lost the election by a fair count, count?

@MaybeNotDepends more so fair statistical analysis - they did the "stop the count" and got Bush "elected" / selected by neo-coup methods. Gore won Florida by thousands of votes.

@MaybeNotDepends I haven't seen it referred to as a coup by any significant media or acedemic sources, so I would say no.

🤔

@RatUziCat

Ya never know

@33 ahahaha thanks, I didn't have that reference!

bought Ṁ10 of Answer #fe30de7836fc YES

USA / United States are duplicates.

Sierra Leon

Sierra Leone ofc!

bought Ṁ10 of Sierra Leon YES

Something seems to be afoot in Sierra Leone. Gun fire at a military base near the Presidential Lodge and near the RSLAF Headquarters. Too early to tell, will keep an eye on things.

sold Ṁ5 of Sierra Leon YES

Government says they're in control,

bought Ṁ200 of Sierra Leon NO

@sarius they seem to have it under control. If it were a coup it would have played out already. This is just rebels on the loose.

Palestinian National Authority (Fatah-controlled government in West Bank areas "A" and "B" )

Massive protests across cities in the WB today. Protesters clashing with PA Sec Forces.

@Nostradamnedus is the west bank a country for the purposes of this question?

Was unsure about this too. Which is why I put the respective government (PNA) which has (partial) civil control over Areas A and B - about 40% of the West Bank. Interested in @Nostradamnedus take on this!

@Daniel_MC @sarius As the internationally recognised State of Palestine, the PA does count as a country for this question.

bought Ṁ30 of Answer #ed8fc77be606 YES

Watching Zimbabwe for a potential autogolpe, 15 MPs of the opposition were illegally expelled on basis of a fake letter. Currently ZANU-PF can't change the constitution - they need 10 more MPs. Sudden, illegally brought about by-elections might help them cross that threshold.


bought Ṁ10 of Guatemala YES

And there is a case to be made for Guatemala - where things have been heating up: Guatemala's interior minister resigns, first protester dies in clashes with armed group. Autogolpe on its home-turf.

Want to place a bet on Haiti here, but I think technically it's a failed state...by your resolution criteria, can a failed state experience a coup?

@such There's still an internationally recognised government, which I think could experience a coup.

Suggestion: require that the country must be on the list before the coup starts to avoid people adding the answer and betting it high after the event happens...

@MartinModrak How is that different from buying particular country on the list before anyone else? I would say the bettors on Other will win when the county is not in the list. (By the design how the Other works - it spawns YES shares of anything new)