Will Canadians with gender-neutral passports be treated equally when travelling to the USA in 2025?

100Ṁ554

2026

21%

chance

ALL

Background: https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/trump-gender-passports-canada-1.7440414?cmp=rss

Examples that would resolve NO:

Repeated/widespread incidents of gender-neutral passport holders being detained or denied entry -- even if this only occurs for a couple months
An official government statement that gender-neutral passport holders will be discriminated against

Examples that would resolve YES:

Only an isolated incident of a gender-neutral passport holder being detained or denied
Discrimination occurs that is isolated only to non-Canadians
Discrimination occurs after 2025 is over
No systemic discrimination against Canadian gender-neutral passport holders occurs in 2025

Because this resolves based on my opinion, I will not trade in this market.

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14d

Transgender, but not gender neutral, so I guess this question is still unresolved https://www.stereogum.com/2303977/bells-larsen-forced-to-cancel-us-tour-due-to-anti-trans-visa-denial/news/

bought Ṁ50 NO1mo

@Seanny123 didn't check sources, but bad vibes at least https://bsky.app/profile/erininthemorning.com/post/3lizmxgcagk2a

1mo

@Seanny123 this would appear to resolve NO, save for the ambiguity of whether it is truly intended to apply to all travellers. I like Erin's reporting, but I'm thinking I will wait for a more mainstream source to state that it applies to all travellers before resolving.