Will birthright citizenship end in the United States by the end of Trump's term?
➕
Plus
4
Ṁ360
2029
35%
chance

Background: The 14th Amendment to the United States Constitution has historically been interpreted to grant citizenship to anyone born on U.S. soil, regardless of their parents' citizenship status (with exceptions for children of foreign diplomats). However, there have been political calls to end or modify birthright citizenship. This question will resolve based on whether the Trump administration enacts policies or laws that result in at least one individual born in the U.S., who would traditionally have been recognized as a citizen under the 14th Amendment, being denied citizenship or having their citizenship rescinded.

Question: Will at least one person born on U.S. soil during Donald Trump’s second non-consecutive term be denied U.S. citizenship (or have their citizenship rescinded) due to a change in the interpretation or application of the 14th Amendment by the U.S. government?

Resolution Criteria:

  1. Yes: This question will resolve as "Yes" if:

    • There is credible, verified documentation (e.g., court rulings, official government records, or reputable investigative journalism) confirming that an individual born on U.S. soil (not to a diplomat or otherwise excluded under the current interpretation of the 14th Amendment) is denied U.S. citizenship at birth or has their citizenship rescinded during Trump's second non-consecutive term, due to changes in the interpretation or enforcement of the 14th Amendment.

    • The denial of citizenship must result from an official policy decision or legal change, not from a clerical error, unintentional administrative oversight, or an isolated case of misinterpretation that is later corrected.

  2. No: This question will resolve as "No" otherwise.

  3. Clarifications:

    • Mere proposals, discussions, or statements without implemented action will not suffice for a "Yes" resolution.

    • Actions that are immediately stayed, blocked, or later reversed such that no individual is ultimately denied or loses citizenship will not count for a "Yes" resolution.

    • Any legal ambiguity or challenge will be resolved based on the final documented outcome for the individual(s) involved within Trump’s term.

  4. Sources: Credible sources for resolution include U.S. court records, official statements from relevant government agencies (e.g., USCIS, Department of State), and investigative journalism from reputable media outlets.

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00
Sort by:

I think a constitutional amendment is unlikely. But this could become a Supreme Court case.

Would you postpone the end date for this market if there's a case that begins during Trump's term, but continues after Trump's term ends?

@TimothyJohnson5c16 if this doesn't happen by the end of Trump's term, a new question can be opened. I think there's a good chance it'll happen during his term, so I'll keep the current resolution criteria.

I think this would likely be pursued through the Supreme Court rather than a constitutional amendment. The Heritage Foundation has a page explaining their legal theory for why the 14th amendment does not grant birthright citizenship:

https://www.heritage.org/immigration/commentary/birthright-citizenship-fundamental-misunderstanding-the-14th-amendment

© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules