Wich cabinet members of the new german goverment will govern until the next election?
10
475Ṁ745
2028
40%
Lars Klingbeil
24%
Alexander Dobrindt
17%
Dorothee Bär
1.7%
Thorsten Frei
1.6%
Friedrich Merz
1.4%
Johann Wadephul
1.3%
Katherina Reiche
1.3%
Karin Prien
1.2%
Nina Warken
1.2%
Karsten Wildberger
1.2%
Patrick Schneider
1.2%
Alois Reiner
1.1%
Bärbel Bas
1.1%
Boris Pistorius
1.1%
Stefanie Hubig
1.1%
Reem Alabali-Radovan
1%
Verena Hubertz
1%
Carsten Schneider

Option resolves yes if minister/chancellor is still in place until the next election. If the next election is an early one or regular is irrelevant.

The reason why the minister/chancellor leaves office is also irrelevant.

Example for the last cabinet:

Habeck or Lauterbach would have resolved yes, even though an early election took place.

Lindner or Lambrecht would have resolved no, because they were fired/left office before the election.

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You are completely right, my mistake. 500 M down the drain.

@KarlLutz Suggestion: switch the market to "If any cabinet members of the new German government stop governing before the next election, which will be first?"

@KarlLutz You can also cancel the market (resolving N/A) which returns the 500 mana

bought Ṁ60 YES

I think you picked the wrong market type. This should be multiple choice - independent, not dependent.

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NEXT PERSON TO BE ELECTED CHANCELLOR OF GERMANY?
Who will succeed Olaf Scholz as next Chancellor of Germany?
Who will be elected Chancellor after the next German federal election?
Which coalition will govern Germany after the next federal election?
Will Olaf Scholz remain chancellor of Germany after the next federal election?
1% chance
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Who will be elected Minister-President of Thuringia after the next state election?
Will CDU party leader Friedrich Merz become Chancellor of Germany after the next election in 2025?
99% chance
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52% chance
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