Who will be elected Minister-President of Thuringia after the next state election?
Who will be elected Minister-President of Thuringia after the next state election?
4
100Ṁ922030
1D
1W
1M
ALL
54%
Mario Voigt
24%
11%
Björn Höcke
11%
No one before 2031
This market will resolve to the first Minister-President elected by the Landtag following the next Thuringian state election.
If no state election occurs by 2031, or an election is held but no Minister-President is elected before then, this market will resolve to "No one before 2031".
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Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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