The current German government of CDU/CSU and SPD dissolves prior to February 2029 elections?
5
100Ṁ73
2029
25%
chance

Resolution criteria

  • Resolves YES if, before the federal polling day in February/March 2029 (if any) or by 31 Mar 2029, 23:59 CET otherwise, the federal cabinet in office is no longer a CDU/CSU–SPD coalition. This can occur via: (a) the Bundestag elects a new chancellor heading a different coalition; or (b) CDU/CSU or SPD exits government such that ministers from both are no longer in the cabinet. Verification will rely on official listings and announcements (Bundestag records of chancellor election and cabinet composition; presidential/bundestag notices on cabinet changes). (bundestag.de)

  • Resolves NO if, at the cutoff, the cabinet in office is still composed of CDU/CSU and SPD ministers (including any caretaker period with the same parties). Bundestag dissolution alone without a change in cabinet composition does not trigger YES. (bundestag.de)

Background

  • The current federal government (Merz cabinet) was formed on 6 May 2025 after the 23 Feb 2025 snap election; it is a grand coalition of CDU/CSU and SPD for the 21st Bundestag term (2025–2029). Official Bundestag records document Merz’s election as chancellor and the cabinet lineup by party. (bundestag.de)

Considerations

  • In Germany, early elections require a failed confidence vote and presidential dissolution; governments can also change mid‑term via a constructive vote of no confidence without elections. Caretaker governments continue until a new cabinet is sworn in; for this market, the coalition is considered intact while both CDU/CSU and SPD remain in the cabinet. (bundestag.de)

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!
Sort by:
opened a Ṁ50 NO at 33% order

Unless the AfD dramatically drops in the polls I can't see the current coalition risk new elections.

© Manifold Markets, Inc.TermsPrivacy