Ann Selzer is famous in politics for operating in Iowa what is widely considered one of the most accurate polls in America. Nate Silver's pollster ratings rate her as one of only 4 "A+" pollsters.

Although her poll will only cover Iowa, a non-swing state, the results can offer a clue as to the potential accuracy of other polling across the country. In 2016 and 2020, the final Selzer poll pointed to a potentially more pro-Trump/Republican environment than most other polling did, and turned out to be true in both years. Additionally, a Trump +4 poll released by Selzer in September this year pointed to favourable terrain for Kamala. It will be a useful data point to see if that has held or the race has reverted to something closer to Selzer's final 2016 and 2020 polls.

This market is set to close on the morning of Saturday, November 2nd with the expectation that the poll will likely be released that evening, based on past years. If Selzer does not release an Iowa horse race poll by Election Day, I will ask moderators to N/A.