I read a blog post last October titled "Ann Selzer is better at election forecasting than Nate Silver". I thought it was surprisingly well-justified, so I made a market on whether the Selzer poll would be closer to the next Iowa election result than the FiveThirtyEight forecast. However, I failed to anticipate all the drama with Silver leaving FiveThirtyEight, so that market will apply to the FiveThirtyEight forecast even if it's essentially a different forecast (such as G. Elliott Morris's).

Resolves YES if the final Selzer & Co poll of the 2024 presidential general election in Iowa is closer to the actual result than the final forecast of Nate Silver's model, whoever publishes it (which will presumably factor in the Selzer poll). Resolves NO if Silver's model is closer, PROB 50% if it's a tie, and N/A if there're no Selzer polls or if no one publishes Silver's forecast.

I should also mention that I'm defining "closer" based the margin between the top two candidates - eg, in 2020, Silver predicted Trump+1.5, Selzer predicted Trump+7, and the result was Trump+8.20. If it mattered, I would find more significant figures on the Selzer poll.

Relevant markets:

General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the common-sense, consensus spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.