Resolves YES if the final Selzer & Co poll of the 2024 presidential general election in Iowa is closer to the actual result than the final FiveThirtyEight forecast (which will presumably factor in the Selzer poll). Resolves NO if FiveThirtyEight is closer, PROB 50% if it's a tie, and N/A if there're no Selzer polls or there's no FiveThirtyEight forecast.

I should also mention that I'm defining "closer" based the margin between the top two candidates - eg, in 2020, FiveThirtyEight predicted Trump+1.5, Selzer predicted Trump+7, and the result was Trump+8.20. If it mattered, I would find more significant figures for the Selzer poll.

EDIT 4/26/23: In accordance with the spirit of the market, and in light of FiveThirtyEight layoffs: if FiveThirtyEight doesn't publish a forecast, but Nate Silver himself or a media company which employs him does publish a forecast which clearly has the essence of the FiveThirtyEight forecast, that will count as "the FiveThirtyEight forecast" for this market.

EDIT 5/20/23: If FiveThirtyEight and Silver both release separate forecasts, this market applies to the FiveThirtyEight one. But see also

Inspiration: https://secondhandcartography.com/2022/10/15/ann-selzer/, https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/comments/y6d91a/ann_selzer_is_better_at_election_forecasting_than/

General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the common-sense, consensus spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.