Which of these rockets will be the last to make its maiden flight in 2024?
Basic
8
Ṁ1010Dec 31
54%
Ariane 6
1.3%
Neutron
44%
New Glenn
0.8%
Vulcan Centaur
I hope this is an interesting market design.
The later a rocket plans to launch/launches the more chance it has to win, BUT if it doesn't launch at all in 2024 it cannot win. It will hopefully produce some interesting betting patterns, especially if there are launches scheduled close together or in December.
A flight is defined as there being visual evidence (either photographic or video) that the rocket launched and cleared the tower. So it doesn't have to fly far!
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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[Edit: My bad, dumb question]
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