I will continue add months after market creation until Other is not the largest option.

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to the specific month in which SpaceX's Starship Human Landing System (HLS) successfully lands on the Moon. The landing is considered successful when the Starship HLS completes a soft landing on the lunar surface, remains upright and sends a signal .The official confirmation of the landing will be sourced from reputable space agencies or organizations, such as NASA or SpaceX, and reported by major news outlets.

Background

The Starship HLS is a lunar lander variant of SpaceX's Starship spacecraft, developed under NASA's Artemis program to transport astronauts from lunar orbit to the Moon's surface and back. As of May 2025, the first crewed lunar landing using Starship HLS is scheduled for mid-2027 as part of the Artemis III mission. This mission aims to be the first crewed lunar landing since Apollo 17 in December 1972. Prior to this, an uncrewed test flight is planned for 2025 to demonstrate a successful landing on the Moon. (en.wikipedia.org)

Considerations

• Potential Delays: The Artemis program has experienced multiple delays. For instance, NASA announced in December 2024 that the Artemis III mission was postponed to mid-2027 due to issues with the Orion capsule's heat shield. (apnews.com)

• Technical Challenges: Recent test flights of the Starship rocket have faced setbacks. On May 27, 2025, SpaceX's ninth Starship demo flight ended in failure due to a loss of control and disintegration over the Indian Ocean. Such challenges may impact the timeline for the Starship HLS lunar landing. (apnews.com)

• Policy Changes: Shifts in U.S. administration policies could influence the Artemis program's schedule and funding. For example, in May 2025, the Trump administration proposed terminating the SLS and Orion programs after Artemis III, introducing uncertainty into future mission timelines. (en.wikipedia.org)

Given these factors, traders should stay informed about official announcements from NASA and SpaceX, as well as developments in U.S. space policy, to make well-informed predictions.

• Update 2026-03-17 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - This market is expected to resolve based on the uncrewed test flight landing of Starship HLS, not necessarily a crewed mission.

  • If SpaceX lands a Starship variant on the Moon before the HLS test flight, the creator will evaluate whether that variant is authentically the same as HLS before resolving.

  • The presence or absence of life support equipment is not a strict requirement for resolution, as the HLS test flight's exact configuration is not yet fully known.