https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1832550322293837833
"Starship launch" = launch to Mars
in 2026/2028 = in the relevant launch window, no problem if the actual launch is in 2027/2029
Update 2025-09-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - A launch must actually occur (visible movement off the pad).
The mission's stated objective must be at least to reach Martian orbit; landing also qualifies.
A planned Mars flyby is not sufficient.
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What does "launch to Mars" mean?
Intention of launch as long as launch actually happens? or
Intention of launch as long as Trans Mars Insertion (TMI) burn is at least x%? 50%? complete does happen? or
What actually happens?
What is needed? (as intent or actual)
Landing? Orbit? Aerocapture test? Significant course altering flyby? Flies within Mars sphere of influence (not altering course much)? Near enough for picture of Optimus waving with Mars clear and 'large' in the background? Past Mars orbital distance but actually nowhere near Mars? or something else?
1) a launch needs to actually happen (visible movement off the pad)
2) the objective of the launch should be at least that a Starship reaches Martian orbit (it could also land). A planned flyby is not sufficient.
@ChristopherRandles I would just gently also point out that you asked me fifteen questions when two would have been enough and perhaps would have been better.
https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1850410433707946124
What Elon says is the plan is currently at 6%