Starship to Mars Multi-choice Matrix
17
2kṀ32042029
14%
No Starship launch in 2026, no Starship launch in 2028
35%
No Starship launch in 2026, uncrewed Starship launch in 2028
3%
No Starship launch in 2026, crewed Starship launch in 2028
5%
Uncrewed Starship launch in 2026, no Starship launch in 2028
33%
Uncrewed Starship launch in 2026, uncrewed Starship launch in 2028
8%
Uncrewed Starship launch in 2026, crewed Starship launch in 2028
2%
Crewed Starship launch in 2026
https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1832550322293837833
"Starship launch" = launch to Mars
in 2026/2028 = in the relevant launch window, no problem if the actual launch is in 2027/2029
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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