Starship to Mars Multi-choice Matrix
20
2kṀ5337
2029
14%
No Starship launch in 2026, no Starship launch in 2028
37%
No Starship launch in 2026, uncrewed Starship launch in 2028
3%
No Starship launch in 2026, crewed Starship launch in 2028
5%
Uncrewed Starship launch in 2026, no Starship launch in 2028
35%
Uncrewed Starship launch in 2026, uncrewed Starship launch in 2028
5%
Uncrewed Starship launch in 2026, crewed Starship launch in 2028
1%
Crewed Starship launch in 2026

https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1832550322293837833

"Starship launch" = launch to Mars

in 2026/2028 = in the relevant launch window, no problem if the actual launch is in 2027/2029

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What does "launch to Mars" mean?

Intention of launch as long as launch actually happens? or
Intention of launch as long as Trans Mars Insertion (TMI) burn is at least x%? 50%? complete does happen? or
What actually happens?


What is needed? (as intent or actual)
Landing? Orbit? Aerocapture test? Significant course altering flyby? Flies within Mars sphere of influence (not altering course much)? Near enough for picture of Optimus waving with Mars clear and 'large' in the background? Past Mars orbital distance but actually nowhere near Mars? or something else?

reposted

https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1850410433707946124

What Elon says is the plan is currently at 6%

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