Question is attempting a more sophisticated mirror of this question:

https://manifold.markets/JoshuaWilkes/if-the-us-defends-taiwan-from-chine?r=Sm9zaHVhV2lsa2Vz

Assumptions about what would be escalatory are more complex here.

Resolves NA if China does not attempt to invade Taiwan OR it does but the US does not attempt to defend Taiwan (before 2040)

Resolves No if the US does attempt to defend Taiwan from a Chinese invasion, and China does not perform military strikes on American soil

Otherwise resolves to all true Yes options

(Including if China launches preemptive strikes on US forces)

Pacific Territories:

Guam, American Samoa, Northern Mariana Islands

Baker Island, Howland Island, Jarvis Island, Johnston Atoll, Kingman Reef, Midway Atoll, Palmyra Atoll, Wake Island

Military strikes: anything physical

Chinese invasion: I think this is going to be obvious; there should be widespread consensus. An invasion does not need to actually take place*, so long as there is substantial evidence that it was being massed on the Chinese coast.

Generally speaking, while you can imagine various scenarios with limited military conflict between Taiwan and China that are not an invasion it's hard to imagine the US being involved in anything short of that. However, I reserve the right to make judgements on whether a scenario constitutes an invasion or not. For this reason I will not bet in this market. If I am no longer active then market participants may appoint a neutral arbitrator if there is disagreement.

*we could imagine that US or Taiwanese actions might prevent it from actually happening