Resolution criteria

This market will resolve based on the number of Members of Parliament (MPs) who publicly declare their affiliation with Zarah Sultana's new political party by 11:59 PM BST on July 31, 2025. The resolution will be determined as follows:

• 0 MPs: No MPs have declared affiliation.

• 1 MP: Exactly one MP has declared affiliation.

• 2-5 MPs: Between two and five MPs have declared affiliation.

• 6-10 MPs: Between six and ten MPs have declared affiliation.

• 11+ MPs: Eleven or more MPs have declared affiliation.

Declarations must be publicly verifiable through official statements, reputable news outlets, or the official website of the new political party.

Saltana does not count towards the total. Corbyn would.

Background

On July 3, 2025, Zarah Sultana announced her resignation from the Labour Party to co-lead the founding of a new political party with former Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn. (news.sky.com) Sultana, who had been suspended from Labour in July 2024 for voting against the two-child benefit cap, has since served as an independent MP for Coventry South. (en.wikipedia.org)

Jeremy Corbyn, after being expelled from Labour in 2024, formed the Independent Alliance with other independent MPs. (en.wikipedia.org) The new party aims to address issues such as poverty, inequality, and foreign policy, positioning itself as an alternative to the existing two-party system.

Considerations

• The new party's formation is recent, and its ability to attract MPs may be influenced by its policy platform, public reception, and the political climate.

• MPs considering affiliation may weigh the potential impact on their constituencies and political careers.

• The political landscape, including reactions from existing parties and the media, could affect MPs' decisions to join the new party.