If Zack Polanski becomes leader of the Green Party (UK), how many Labour MPs will defect to the Greens?
24
1kṀ10k
2026
0.2%
Polanski does not become Green Party leader.
44%
0 defections
31%
1 defection
22%
2-5 defections
2%
6-10 defections
1.1%
11+ defections

Inspired by this tweet. How many current Labour MPs (current = holds the labour whip as-at market creation on 3rd June 2025) will instead be listed as Green on Parliament's Find MPs page at market close?

Resolves "Polanski does not become Green Party leader" if Polanski does not win the 2025 leadership election.

  • Update 2025-11-20 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Lloyd Russell-Moyle (LRM) would not count toward the resolution, as he ceased to be an MP for Labour before the election, prior to market creation.

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boughtṀ303 NO

@lisamarsh is there some news I’m missing?

bought Ṁ5 YES

@Noit Lloyd Russell moyle isn’t a current mp… So unless I’m mistaken, I’m not sure why 0 went so low

@Jack0 agreed, LRM would not count as he ceased to be an MP for Labour before the election, prior to market creation.

Is it possible to resolve the first option now that Polanski did win the contest?

@dorothydomer unfortunately this type of market doesn't allow resolving some options but not others. It's a feature I'd love them to implement though! There's lots of "what date will X happen" markets that still have 2024 or even 2023 as an option.

@Fion thanks for the quick reply - sorry I didn't know that it wasn't possible.

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