Will the next president have an approval rating above 45% in 2025, and will they be a Democrat or a Republican?
Basic
16
921
2026
4%
There will be a Democrat president, and their approval rating will exceed 45% in 2025
47%
There will be a Democrat president, and their approval rating will not exceed 45% in 2025
3%
There will be a Republican president, and their approval rating will exceed 45% in 2025
45%
There will be a Republican president, and their approval rating will not exceed 45% in 2025

Resolves based on 538's tracker, or the most similar source I can find if 538's tracker becomes unavailable.

Both Biden and Trump have had approval ratings above this number, though not for very long. Right now, Biden's approval rating is 38.8% and Trump's is 43.1%.

This market will count any republican or democrat president if it's somehow not Biden or Trump, but it only counts the person who is inaugurated in January 2025. So if someone is inaugurated but then removed from office and replaced by their VP, their VP's approval rating will not count for this market.

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Okay y'all seem quite pessimistic about anyone breaking 45%, so how about 43%? Trump is above that right now.

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