There will be a Democrat president, and their approval rating will exceed 43% in 2025

There will be a Democrat president, and their approval rating will not exceed 43% in 2025

There will be a Republican president, and their approval rating will exceed 43% in 2025

There will be a Republican president, and their approval rating will not exceed 43% in 2025

, or the most similar source I can find if 538's tracker becomes unavailable. 

Both Biden and Trump have had approval ratings above this number, though not often. Right now, Biden's approval rating is 38.8% and

This market will count any republican or democrat president if it's somehow not Biden or Trump, but it only counts the person who is inaugurated in January 2025. So if someone is inaugurated but then removed from office and replaced by their VP, their VP's approval rating will not count for this market. 