Will the next president have an approval rating above 43% in 2025, and will they be a Democrat or a Republican?

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resolved Feb 28

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100%99.0%

There will be a Republican president, and their approval rating will exceed 43% in 2025

0.2%

There will be a Democrat president, and their approval rating will exceed 43% in 2025

0.4%

There will be a Democrat president, and their approval rating will not exceed 43% in 2025

0.5%

There will be a Republican president, and their approval rating will not exceed 43% in 2025

Resolves based on 538's tracker, or the most similar source I can find if 538's tracker becomes unavailable.

Both Biden and Trump have had approval ratings above this number, though not often. Right now, Biden's approval rating is 38.8% and Trump's is 43.1%.

This market will count any republican or democrat president if it's somehow not Biden or Trump, but it only counts the person who is inaugurated in January 2025. So if someone is inaugurated but then removed from office and replaced by their VP, their VP's approval rating will not count for this market.

Market context

2024 US Presidential Election

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@mods Resolves Yes for Silver Bulletin's tracker

@Joshua Would have to resolve with Silver Bulletin right?

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/approval/donald-trump/

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