Will OpenAI release GPT 4.5 or GPT 5 before June 2024?
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resolved May 14
Resolved
YES
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This market resolves Yes if OpenAI broadly releases the successor to GPT-4 before June 2024.

Any model which is clearly the next major, canonical form of GPT will count for this market regardless of what it is called. I am assuming this will be called GPT-4.5 or GPT-5, but it still counts if it has another name. A larger context window does not count, a jump like GPT-3 to GPT-3.5 does count.

It must be released to the general public, though it can still be in open beta and it can still be behind a paywall or require a subscription.

If no such model is released before June 1st (PT), this market resolves No.

For more markets on this subject, see the Dashboard.

/ms/when-will-openai-release-a-more-cap
/Joshua/when-will-openai-broadly-release-gp

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Kalshi's Market on a GPT-4 successor/GPT-4.5 resolved YES today, counting GPT-4o. I was already leaning towards a YES resolution, and was mainly waiting to see if Kalshi would disagree with me. Mira's market about 4.5 is also counting GPT-4o. Jim's market on if GPT2-Chatbot is GPT-4's successor has resolved NO. Mikhail's Market on "a more capable llm" is still unresolved.

My markets don't have exactly the same criteria as those markets, but this is a tricky situation and I wanted to see how other creator's handled it and hear arguments from traders. At this point, I think I'm confident in resolving all my markets to count GPT-4o as if it were GPT-4.5. I think that this is how OpenAI is presenting 4o, and I think that the improvements to speed, cost, and modality are impressive enough to justify that presentation as the latest and greatest flagship model.

On OpenAI's website, they now list GPT-4 and GPT-4 Turbo together as the "previous set" of models:

I think that it's disappointing that 4o isn't significantly smarter than GPT-4, but my markets never required OpenAI's next model to be significantly smarter. This system seems to be what all the rumors about a multimodal 4.5 model were referring to, and it was those rumors that kicked off my creation of these markets.

OpenAI's presentation of 4o is clearly intended to frame it as a jump like 3 to 3.5 or 3.5 to 4, but they are saving the impact of a numerical name increase for the full jump to GPT 5.

The next version of these markets will be run by the canonical Manifold AI account, and I will not trade in them:

@Joshua Thanks for putting care and consideration into elaborating your reasoning, I wish I did non-5 star reviews more often so I could go out of my way on this one.

Any model which is clearly the next major, canonical form of GPT will count for this market regardless of what it is called. I am assuming this will be called GPT-4.5 or GPT-5, but it still counts if it has another name.

Does GPT4o just count?

@DanMan314 Possibly! I'm going to close these markets for now and consider.

reposted
2 traders bought Ṁ25 YES

Given that GPT-4 was revealed and released the same day, I think we are mostly expecting the same of its successor. But given that DALLE 3 didn't release for 30 days and SORA was revealed a month ago and still hasn't released, I don't think we should take that for granted. So to help in arbitraging the markets about reveal and the markets about release, I've made a new market:

bought Ṁ100 YES
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