There are a lot of markets asking when OpenAI's next major LLM will be announced/revealed, and there are many markets asking when it will be released.

I think it is important to establish how close we expect these events to be to each other.

For context:

GPT-4 was revealed and released simultaneously on March 14th, 2023.

DALLE 3 was revealed on September 20th 2023, and released on October 20th 2023, 30 days later.

SORA was revealed on February 15th 2024, and still has not released as of March 17th 2024.

Any model which is clearly the next major, canonical form of GPT will count for this market regardless of what it is called. I am assuming this will be called GPT-4.5 or GPT-5, but it still counts if it has another name. A larger context window does not count, a jump like GPT-3 to GPT-3.5 does count.

To count as "revealed", the current existence of the model and some information about its capabilities must be officially released by OpenAI the organization. A leak would not count, or any comments by Altman or other employees.

To count as "released", the model must be released to the general public, though it can still be in open beta and it can still be behind a paywall or require a subscription.

If the date that OpenAI reveals their next major LLM is within 40 days of its release, this market resolves YES. If not, this market resolves NO. This market remains open until the next model is revealed, or resolves N/A if OpenAI ceases to exist.