Will I get selected for Jury duty?
48
311
1K
resolved Apr 11
Resolved
NO

I've received a summons, and I don't plan on trying to get out of it but I'm also not especially eager to do it. I'm just going to show up and answer their questions honestly and see what happens.

I'm curious what the base rate is. I'm a white male engineer in San Diego, if that helps.

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Got sent home! Liquidity for whoever sees this first before I resolve no

@Joshua What would you say the base rate should have been?

@Nikos There were no further names called after like the first few, but from what they said this was a lighter than usual day. If someone else made this market tomorrow I'd still buy down to 10% or so though.

sold Ṁ129 YES

Hmm as early commenters said, base rate for even having your name called seems pretty low. Been here a while now and only like 5% of the room has been called.

bought Ṁ10 NO from 22% to 21%
bought Ṁ100 YES

They announced that we're not here for a big case, would probably be just just a few days.

That makes me want to get selected actually, so this is now a personal goal market.

Anyone have tips for how to get Into jury duty?

@Joshua be charming. offer bribes. wear a lowcut shirt?

it's possible I have tips but they're not good ones.

Just saw like 20 cops run out of the courthouse and towards some commotion across the street...

I am getting breakfast and then going into the courthouse

I've been called in for Jury duty a few times, and each time I called the day before and the case was cancelled. Sounds pretty common. I think the odds are low you are getting selected.

Do you for sure have to show up for the summons or are you potentially an alternate based on last name lottery the day before?

@benshindel I believe I for sure have to show up.

Tell them about this market and see what they do. I am seriously curious.

@BTE sounds like a great way to get sent home 😅

@Joshua Bingo. And if not it’s an interesting story!

bought Ṁ200 NO

@case (Also a white male engineer in San Diego) was summoned recently. He said they summon about 300 people a day to go down to the courthouse. They do this ahead of time with no knowledge of what the trial schedule will look like on that day. On the day he was summoned they only had one case. They selected about 60 people for it (who then get whittled down to the 12 they need for the actual trial).

10% seems about right to me.

@Nikos i’ve had jury duty 5 times now and never gotten to even sit in the room or talk to the judge or the defense attorney (twice in CA now). and i wanted to sit on the jury both times

What is your opinion of jury nullification?

@soweliSon I heard you can get held in contempt for bringing it up hahaha

I didn't realize you were in San Diego, I go to school there. Nice city

On the one hand, I couldn't have my phone out to be on Manifold during the trial. On the other hand, think of the prop bet market I could run!

@Joshua okay @Joroth was on jury duty for ~9 weeks last year and it's actually heartbreaking that there weren't prop bets to resolve at the end of the trial 😣 what a missed opportunity. especially since he wouldn't reveal anything along the way so I was making guesses in my head about what might be happening or what the case was about. (I would have lost a lot of Mana though so not having a market was probably for the best)

/market conditional on me making a prop bet market and the judge finding out, what will the penalty be?

/market conditional on making a prop bet market and anyone related to the case finding out, how many referral bonuses will Joshua collect for people who join to live trade on insider information?

@Joshua my trial ended up being 3 months so hope yours is shorter 😂

@Joroth I forgot it was that long 🫠

(three months via zoom yikes)