This market closes in one week. It is a contest to see which top trader will have the highest profit in a single market created and resolved during that time. I will resolve this market to the eligible candidate with the highest eligible profit.
Full rules below:
Candidate Eligibility Rules:
You can submit yourself or other users as an answer.
Candidates should be submitted as "@[Manifold Username]".
Any subsequent duplicate entries will not be selected as the winner.
Before this market closes, there must be a comment posted here with a link to an eligible market, as defined below, showing the candidate as the top trader.
I will add candidates and post links to eligible markets myself throughout the week. But I will not consider any markets that have not resolved and been posted in the comments before the time this market closes.
Market/Payout Eligibility Rules:
The market is publicly listed.
The market is created after this market.
The market resolves before or at the same time as this market closes (07/14, 11:59:00 PM PDT), or closes by then and has an obvious resolution.
The market has a top trader that has been submitted as an answer here.
The market is "serious" in my judgment. It is a predictive market about newsworthy real world events, not itself / other markets / streamers / manifold user's personal lives.
I reserve the right to disqualify a market if it seems like someone has conspired with the top trader to give them the profit deliberately.
Once this market has closed, I will look through the comments to find the eligible market with the highest-profit top trader. I will then select that trader as the correct answer for this market.
If there is somehow a tie, I will resolve to an equal percentage between the winners.
I'm happy to clarify any of these eligibility criteria in the comments, and if there are any major clarifications needed I will update the main post with those clarifications.
May the best trader win!
1,000
1.00@Joshua Yeah do more of these. โค But should prob change it to month not week. Serious markets that start and end in the same week are just not much of a thing.
I intend to make another! Still trying to figure out what's worth changing with the criteria/format. Do you guys think free response is still the best way to do this? I was considering going to Multi-Binary now that answers can be added to those, or maybe some sort of strange Bounty system where you ask entrants to contribute to the bounty.
Was also weighing the merits of requring the market to be made during the contest vs just requiring it to close during the contest.
You know, just realized i have definitely used the wrong terminology in the description here though I think everyone understand what I meant.
To be clear, my intention was to resolve to the highest profit of a top trader, which is how the top traders are determined. Which is not the same as the highest payout. Everyone in the comments is correctly posting the Profit of the top traders though, so hopefully this didn't cause any confusion.
I'm going to edit the market description to be more clear.
Updated! As of right now, looks to me like @nickten is winning with +แน980 but still 15 hours until market close! Oh, I'll update the description to be clear about time zone too after the actor's strike market ๐
Well the idea is that I wanted people to predict who would be good at making predictions this week, not good at knowing who has already made good predictions in the past that are only now paying off. Possibly there is a better way to judge that than market creation date, but got to stick with that for this market.
+แน980 by yours truly
https://manifold.markets/SirCryptomind/will-ethereum-close-higher-july-9th
Are you sure you want to allow these kinds of markets? Given the lack of "serious" markets that are created and resolved in the same week, it's almost guaranteed to be some degenerate gambling on finance or sports.
Fair points, might exclude these if I do another of these markets but for this one they count!
@aoife with just แน95 could be the highest so far that meets the criteria
https://manifold.markets/Daconomist/will-max-verstappen-take-pole-posit
My intention is that they need to be the single most profitable trader in the market. If they're the second most profitable, the person who is the most profitable should be added as an option and then that entry should win.
@Joshua that makes sense, two more questions:
do markets that close midnight of the 14th and have an obvious resolution count?
does i tie split the %? (i just don't think there's going to be a ton of markets created + resolved this week)
@cloe
1. Good point, I think that yes those makets should be eligible as long as they've been posted here before midnight on the 14th.
2. Yes, ties split the %.
I agree that not many markets are created and resolved just in one week, in the future I might try something like this over a longer time span or with other variances so that there are more eligible markets. But i'm interested to see how this short-term version will go.