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This market has been resolved!

Lessons I've learned from this shitshow:

• Specify the time and timezone for market deadlines, especially if it's short term.

• Avoid vague phrases like "a significant number of".

• Don't be too eager to ride the wave of a market going up to 100% or down to 0%.

I'll resolve this to NO if no one voices any objections in the next ten minutes.

@duck_master My position and reason is known. 👍

@duck_master I feel the announcement of the strike should be taken as the beginning of the strike. I know they stated a specific beginning time for midnight tonight, but thats obviously to not inconvenience actors who were in the middle of events today. As a collective the actors are striking, just officially starting at midnight.

@ZacheryHolmes I don't think any actors are striking yet though. The deadline was July 13 at midnight Eastern Time and it's passed.

@duck_master https://www.axios.com/2023/07/13/oppenheimer-cast-union-strike-hollywood-studios

@ZacheryHolmes This article showing that the cast of Oppenheimer left as soon as the information that Sag Aftra approved of the strike was made public. I know you are calling for a “significant number” of actors, but of all possible events where a strike would be noticeable, this is the only one I can think of. So being the biggest premier of the day, and the strike starting is this not the largest possible portion of noticeable strike?

@ZacheryHolmes Yep, I've heard of the Oppenheimer incident before, and I've already explained downthread and in the Discord why I don't think it really counts because it's not significant enough (the Oppenheimer cast is only a tiny fraction of all SAG-AFTRA members after all).

@duck_master The UK also does not recognize the SAG-AFTRA Union. So all the reason for them to leave early to go back home!

@duck_master My point being, aside from leaving their homes on short notice to make picket signs and march through the streets, what more noticeable start to a strike could we get?

@SirCryptomind Except for their contractual obligations to stay and promote their movie?

@ZacheryHolmes Unfortunately we do not know each individual actors terms of contract to be able to really know if they fulfilled their obligations or not.

@SirCryptomind The contract an actor signs to Sag-Aftra is the same. Its their union contract. I know many people within Sag-Aftra and have thought of joining myself but most of my acting is for hobby so I haven’t. .

With big name actors already leaving the premier if their movies I hope this gets resolved for YES. I have also already seen Adam Conover speaking for actors as a whole stating that they will be standing with the writers guild in a large public strike.

@ZacheryHolmes The only ones who can speak officially is the board, and by overall vote.

They are striking at midnight tonight. Does that count for yes?

@tbone_steak "Midnight" is in Pacific Time. This market closes at midnight Eastern time, so it doesn't count.

https://deadline.com/2023/07/strike-sag-actors-matthew-modine-galway-film-fleadh-ireland-festivals-1235437263/

SAG-AFTRA Strike Already Impacting Film Festivals As Ireland’s Galway Fleadh Pulls Premiere Q&A With Matthew Modine; Actor Issues Rallying Cry: “Our Solidarity Is Our Strength”

There is growing angst about the potential impact of the confirmed SAG strike on upcoming A-list festivals such as Venice and Toronto, but the industrial action is already having a tangible effect …

Here's another story about the strike already disrupting things.

What would make this super crazy for this market is if an agreement with mediators reach an agreement to avert the midnight PT strike. But have yet to see any updates on mediation.

I assume the mediation is over or can’t be immediately reconvened until the SAGAFTA board reconvenes. Just my thoughts and opinion.

Like Market creator stated, this still probably resolve NO rather than YES.

IMHO (I am obviously biased but please hear me out 😁) the "significant number" of actors is also debatable. How many actors actually even star in Oppenheimer? Bear in mind the guild has 160,000 members. I would guess that no more than 0.1 % of these have left the premiere, is that a significant number of actors/actresses in your book?

The strike itself definitelly has to include orders of magnitude more actors to be effective.

@JaromirSvoboda The main cast left only, from most social accounts reporting on it.

@JaromirSvoboda also as I stated before, it more than likely just so they could get home in time for the strike and do be the “last movie premiere” prior to strike starting. They walked and only left “in solidarity for respect off SAG And Writers”. Also they got good press out of it which maybe gives the film a slight boost in opening box office gross revenue, and more residuals later.

This is just the only case big enough and dramatic enough to get major reporting, is the thing. But I would absolutely claim that thousands or tens of thousands of actors are currently with-holding their labor. The guild is not /requiring/ them to do so until midnight PST, but I think they are on strike regardless.

Why leaving the premier counts as a strike: Actors are contractually obligated to participate in marketing for the movies they star in.

Striking means withholding labour as a group to achieve a stronger bargaining position collectively.

The actors left the premier, thus withheld their labour to collectively support their unions demands.

The market asks 'Will actors strike'. Yes, actors did strike. They didn't perform their labour as marketing figures for the product they worked on. They went on strike.

Seconding all of this. The resolution criteria isn't about when the organization of the actor's guild will formally declare a strike, it's about when actors themselves do the action of striking. I think there are probably also plenty of other cases like this, Oppenheimer is just big enough for us to get reporting on it.

@Rwin @Joshua How do you know that actors are contractually obligated to participate in the premieres? That said, I think your arguments may be valid. (We still have several hours to argue out the resolution either way, anyways!)

@duck_master

Notably, not attending premiers is listed as one of the rules of the strike:

@Joshua Thanks for finding this source! I am now really unsure about how to resolve this market and would like an expert's opinion. (It's also being discussed on the Manifold Discord.)

@duck_master of course I don't know the exact contract details, but in general actors are required to perform publicity for their projects. This is one of the things keeping talk shows alive.

I think a good proxy for the question is, if since the announcement the majority of actors in the union would be willing to perform their jobs.

Everything we heard so far points to the fact that the strike is already happening, even though the official start is in a few hours.

I think it's also important to mention that a strike is a social and economic pressure campaign. The effects of the campaign in question are already felt since the announcement.

I can absolutely understand if this resolves N/A to avoid conflicts but a 'NO' resolution would be really, really hard to substantiate. The strike is happening, actors are calling off appearances and the union's members are already in full strike-mode (Just listen to Fran Drescher's speech).

@Rwin (I'm not claiming to be an expert, I was already typing before he asked for an expert's opinion 😅)