Who will be the highest-profit top trader in a serious market in July?

Basic

Ṁ4228

resolved Aug 2

ALL

100%97%

@SemioticRivalry

0.3%Other

0.2%

0.1%

0.0%

This is a follow-on market after this market, but for a longer time period of a month.

It is a contest to see which top trader will have the highest profit in a single market in July. I will resolve this market to the eligible candidate with the highest eligible profit.

Full rules below:

You can submit yourself or other users as an answer.
Candidates should be submitted as "@[Manifold Username]".
Any subsequent duplicate entries will not be selected as the winner.
Before this market closes, there must be a comment posted here with a link to an eligible market, as defined below, showing the candidate as the top trader.

Market/Payout Eligibility Rules:

The market is publicly listed.
The market is created after June 1st (with an emphasis on most of the trading being in July)
The market resolves before or at the same time as this market closes (08/01, 11:59:00 PM EST)
The market has a top trader that has been submitted as an answer here.
The market is "serious" in my judgment. It is a predictive market about newsworthy real world events, not itself / other markets / streamers / manifold user's personal lives.

I reserve the right to disqualify a market if it seems like someone has conspired with the top trader to give them the profit deliberately.

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25 Comments

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This resolves to Semiotic, right?

@Joshua Yes currently if no other markets get added today

I hope someone does another one with the new free response format!

@Joshua how much different is it? Can you choose multiple answers?

The biggest thing is ithat you can short answers like a normal multibinary market

@Joshua Oh cool. Made it here:

https://manifold.markets/Jackzilla/will-barbies-achieve-90-or-higher-o

Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?

5% chance. I’ll aim to resolve after ~350 reviews, or 30 days, unless it’s really close and more reviews are still coming in. The review embargo lifts today at 7pm ET. currently we are in “it’s really close and reviews are still coming in”, but ‘its close’ is losing out - right now barbie needs a…

This should be 33,283 mana profit right?

After the re-resolution, @SirCryptomind should now be the frontrunner.

@Joshua i have no issue with that, but i also don't mind not counting it

The market is "serious" in my judgment. It is a predictive market about newsworthy real world events, not itself / other markets / streamers / manifold user's personal lives.

@nickten

I believe PC said below when Crypto nominated Mira that he thought it was serious.

@Joshua Yup , they did!

@SirCryptomind

LOL

@Joshua

@PC can we get a ruling on if this market is serious

@Joshua honestly, if it was my market I would've resolved N/A. But I trust BTE resolving YES at his judgement.

I'd have the same profit as Mira had it resolved NO.

And honestly been trying to find a reason to stay of Manifold. It is very addictive, and since there is no monetary payout option, seemed like this was a good time to "Go all in".

@Joshua I think @PC is trying to stay under 1 hour on the site as their market says. So they may not clarify until later or tomorrow.

@SirCryptomind I'm inclined to call this market serious because it is about a real-world event. I do see there is controversy though. Rough loss @SirCryptomind, seems like you made a conscious decision and are taking it well though.

@PC Willing to hear arguments against though

@PC

I think I agree it should count as a serious market, even if I think it was a silly resolution.

@Joshua @PC I put it this way, it is like github going down or any other site. It may make news, it probably will not. But just because manifold is tiny compared to github and other sites doesn't mean it isn't a serious event. Just my opinion.

And yea tough loss. It is what it is.

Also, if i do come back. It will most likely be market creation and not betting on my own markets.

I like doing markets, I find the predicting part too addictive and time consuming.

@SirCryptomind Mm I would be curious what part of Manifold you would value abnd enjoy and would consider continuing. Definitely a question that I am thinking about

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