Who will be on the TIME Person of The Year 2023 List? [Free Response - Unlinked - Includes Winner and Runners-Up]
37
671
5.8k
resolved Dec 6
Resolved
YES
Vladimir Putin
Resolved
YES
[This market contains at least 3 distinct correct answers before announcement]
Resolved
YES
[This market contains at least 5 distinct correct answers before announcement]
Resolved
YES
Jerome Powell
Resolved
YES
Jack Smith [Counts as Trump Prosecutor]
Resolved
YES
Hollywood strikers
Resolved
YES
Xi Jinping
Resolved
YES
Taylor Swift
Resolved
YES
King Charles III
Resolved
YES
Sam Altman
Resolved
YES
Union Workers [Counts for Hollywood Strikers]
Resolved
YES
[There is at least a politician, a businessman, an artist (any field), AND a group on the list]
Resolved
NO
Benjamin Netanyahu
Resolved
NO
Elon Musk
Resolved
NO
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
Resolved
NO
Mike Johnson
Resolved
NO
Prince Harry, Duke of Sussex
Resolved
NO
The Supreme Court Of The United States
Resolved
NO
[Consolidated Speaker of the House related entity]
Resolved
NO
[Consolidated Victims/Civilians/non-military persons/ related to a current war]

In some past years, TIME has released a shortlist of people they considered naming as person of the year, in addition to the winner.

This is an unlinked free response market, anyone can submit an answer and multiple answers can resolve yes.

If an answer submitted to this market is on the 2023 POTY list, including the winner, it resolves to yes.

I wll have one [Non-ChatGPT Artificial Intelligence] answer and one [ChatGPT specifically] answer. Please no other AI answers. Feel free to submit various other abstract answers as you please.

You can also submit meta options, like [this market contains at least 5 distinct correct answers] or [There will be no shortlist].

This market will remain open through the announcement of the shortlist. If there is no shortlist, then only the winner resolves yes.

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Strangely I never re-created this shortlist market for 2024, which in retrospect was actually the market where I think we did the best job predicting the outcome! Made one today:

Isn’t this market supposed to resolve by now?

@oh I'm mainly waiting to see if they end up adding something to the winner, like how Kamala Harris was added to Biden in 2020. I could resolve a bunch of these to yes though, because I i don't think anything eligible now should become ineligible after the announement. I'll just wait to resolve anything to NO until after the announcement.

That seem good to everyone?

bought Ṁ1,000 of Jack Smith [Counts a... YES

@Joshua That makes sense.

Union Workers [Counts for Hollywood Strikers]

Should this really resolve yes? Hollywood strikers are a subgroup of this group, but I don't think it makes sense to allow subgroups to count, otherwise by the same logic you could submit something like "The Americans" and many of these will count. And the difference is not negligible either, SAG-AFTRA stikes were also very big and aren't included in this. And then there's all the other union workers.

I think it was predictive of the choice and TIME just went with a different wording. The hollywood unions are the main thing anyone thinks about when you ask them what unions were in the news, so I see why TIME was more specific but I dont' want to penalize this prediction for that.

bought Ṁ1 of Hollywood strikers NO

@Joshua does ts count for a businessperson and an artist?

sold Ṁ449 of Jack Smith [Counts a... NO

@TheBayesian Taylor as businessperson + Sam Altman as escape artist and we've got this one on lock!

Jack Smith [Counts as Trump Prosecutor]

I'll allow this under prosecutors too, I'm turning off submissions so no more dupes tho.

Hollywood strikers

Shouldn't this fall under union workers @Joshua ?

@NicoDelon Yeah agreed

@Joshua N/A it?

sold Ṁ1 of Answer #6dcf24d39db5 YES

I think it was predictive of the group on the shortlist, just not the exact right wording so it should resolve yes.

@Joshua Right but I’m saying N/A the Hollywood strikers answer because I added it after the fact and it’s redundant

bought Ṁ25 of Answer #36f6390f373a YES

Going to wait for the final list from TIME because things could cange.

[Consolidated Speaker of the House related entity]

Because I don't feel like taking up a bunch of slots with McCarthy, McHenry, Gaetz, Johnson, etc

bought Ṁ10 of Union Workers [Count... YES

@Marnix I'll take it, but won't count it for meta answers.

bought Ṁ20 of Sam Altman YES

@Joshua Like for [At least 5 answers]? That seems fair to me! Who knows, there could be more than one of them on there

Ngl, I'm kinda surprised you hadn't already made this one!

@Marnix I forgot there was a shortlist!