MANIFOLD
Who will be TIME Magazine's 2026 Person of the Year?
145
Ṁ20kṀ91k
Dec 31
64%
Other
10%
Donald Trump and/or JD Vance
5%
Artificial Intelligence Itself (Including 'ChatGPT', 'Gemini', etc)
3%
Elon Musk
2%
Zohran Mamdani
2%
Xi Jinping
1.9%
Vladimir Putin
1.9%
Sam Altman
1.4%
Marco Rubio
1.2%
Self Driving Cars (Including 'Waymo', 'Uber', etc)
1%
Jeffrey Epstein
1%
Gavin Newsom

This question resolves to the TIME 2026 Person of The Year. It uses consolidated answers to avoid having to predict who the major party nominees will be, or the exact wording of any abstract/group answers.

If multiple options do end up being true, then those options will resolve to an even split of 100%.

In ambiguous cases, I will try to match the resolution of the market to who Wikipedia lists in their TIME Person of The Year article.

Market context
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bought Ṁ2 YES

James Talarico, Jon Ossoff, and some sort of consolidated prediction markets option [prediction markets and/or their companies or CEOs including Coplan and Mansour and Lopez Lara, etc] would be some reasonable options in my opinion. Would really prefer to avoid a situation like last year, so I suggest that the prediction market option actually encompass all variations.

@bens @Joshua could we also get Bad Bunny at some point? Mysteriously trading at like 13% on Kalshi lol

Suggestion to add Bad Bunny, who won the grammy for song of the year and will be playing the super bowl (and who's already getting some culture war nonsense because of it)

Moltbook will be person of the year

@PierreS market: https://manifold.markets/PierreS/will-moltbook-be-time-person-of-the (I know you already know, since it's yours!)

bought Ṁ10 YES

Suggestion to add Maria Machado

If I put 1 mana on Jeffrey Epstein, and he ends up as person of the year, I will gain almost 2,000 mana! I wonder why the famous financier is valued so low?

@Mrdudeguy cause he's freaking Jeffery Epstein

@realDonaldTrump Im realizing my use of capitalization totally makes my comment look like it was written by ai haha.

Could we get some kind of aggregated "[Children / Babies / Birthgivers / anything TFR-related]"?

@bens idk if there's a way to cleanly operationalize this. Definitely distinct from Gen Alpha though.

@bens on second thought this is probably too messy

Suggestion to add: Immigrants (Including "The Migrant", "Deportees", etc)

bought Ṁ1 YES

@Joshua How would this market resolve if the winner was Elon Musk and Teslas Full self driving feature

@NzJack0n My first guess is that'd be 50% Elon, 50% Self Driving Cars

@Joshua 👍 I think of waymo and Uber as not making their own cars, so wondered if a car manufacturer would count as yes in that list. Thanks

bought Ṁ1 YES

I want to add the new FOMC Chair but I think I should wait until they are confirmed in case something really weird happens

sold Ṁ3 YES

@Joshua could always do [The new FOMC chair] like we did with the new pope

bought Ṁ5 YES

@Marnix ...what if he names someone already on the list

filled a Ṁ11 YES at 13% order

ah shit yeah that's a fair point

bought Ṁ10 YES

@Joshua maybe just add kevin hassett?

@brod Done

opened a Ṁ250 YES at 1.0% order

Suggestion: robot(s) (not including self driving cars), maybe humanoid robots

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