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MANIFOLD
Who will be TIME Magazine's 2026 Person of the Year?
280
Ṁ21kṀ200k
Dec 31
26%
Zohran Mamdani
16%
Mark Carney
12%
Pope Leo XIV (Robert Prevost)
10%
Other
6%
Donald Trump and/or JD Vance
5%
Dario Amodei
4%
Artificial Intelligence Itself (Including 'ChatGPT', 'Gemini', etc)
4%
Elon Musk
3%
Benjamin Netanyahu
2%
James Talarico
1.5%
Xi Jinping
1.4%
Sam Altman
1.3%
AOC
1.1%
Marco Rubio
1%
Jon Ossoff
1%
Pete Hegseth

This question resolves to the TIME 2026 Person of The Year. It uses consolidated answers to avoid having to predict who the major party nominees will be, or the exact wording of any abstract/group answers.

If multiple options do end up being true, then those options will resolve to an even split of 100%.

In ambiguous cases, I will try to match the resolution of the market to who Wikipedia lists in their TIME Person of The Year article.

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My man Zohran is banning horse carriages in Central Park. He should win the Nobel prize for it.

@AmmonLam FR FR

opened a Ṁ500 YES at 2% order

Can we get some more VOLUME on this? BIG BETS please.

Add Mark Carney? @Joshua

sold Ṁ23 YES

@2b3o4o Huh it won't let me

@Joshua I got that a few times trying to trade on this market today as well. This may not be related, or it may

@Joshua typical MAGA Manifold backend censoring the Canadian GOAT PM smh

bought Ṁ4 YES

@Joshua try again. 50 percent of my trades go through

@JussiVilleHeiskanen Just tried and it appeared but then vanished. I dont want to spam it lest I add a multitude of Carni

@Joshua typical MAGA Manifold user only wanting to add a single Carnus

bought Ṁ50 YES

@Joshua Cold you try again, please?

@Joshua to echo, we remain Carney-free

bought Ṁ50 NO

@JussiVilleHeiskanen the market itself does still seem to have weird resistance to actions.

Alysa Liu @Joshua

@ZandaZhu I'll vote for Alysa Liu for anything

The Artemis II crew @Joshua

opened a Ṁ500 YES at 13% order

Any chance to add Hegseth @Joshua?

sam altman

bought Ṁ50 YES

"Bad Bunny" is a poor guess here. If you're following the "Taylor Swift" line of thinking, you're forgetting just how much of a force she was in 2023

@BrendanFinan I mean, I agree, but Bad Bunny has been trading at 12-17% on real money markets for the last month. So, I'd like to hedge that here

I want there to be an Alysa Liu option just so I can be Alysa Liu’s biggest shareholder.

I'm betting on [Iranian war recognition bucket]

bought Ṁ15 NO

Suggestion to add nick fuentes

@comicstosteal The pro-Epstein activist?

@Chumchulum His victims were between 14 and 17, a pedophile is attracted to prepubescent children. Everyone is just wrong about it in their moral outrage. It doesn't change his conclusion about epstein, so it's just choosing not to lie for the sake of lying.