MANIFOLD
Who will be TIME Magazine's 2026 Person of the Year?
140
Ṁ20kṀ86k
Dec 31
69%
Other
8%
Donald Trump and/or JD Vance
3%
Artificial Intelligence Itself (Including 'ChatGPT', 'Gemini', etc)
2%
Xi Jinping
2%
Elon Musk
2%
Zohran Mamdani
2%
Vladimir Putin
1.8%
Sam Altman
1.4%
Marco Rubio
1.4%
Self Driving Cars (Including 'Waymo', 'Uber', etc)

This question resolves to the TIME 2026 Person of The Year. It uses consolidated answers to avoid having to predict who the major party nominees will be, or the exact wording of any abstract/group answers.

If multiple options do end up being true, then those options will resolve to an even split of 100%.

In ambiguous cases, I will try to match the resolution of the market to who Wikipedia lists in their TIME Person of The Year article.

Market context
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Moltbook will be person of the year

bought Ṁ10 YES

Suggestion to add Maria Machado

If I put 1 mana on Jeffrey Epstein, and he ends up as person of the year, I will gain almost 2,000 mana! I wonder why the famous financier is valued so low?

@Mrdudeguy cause he's freaking Jeffery Epstein

@realDonaldTrump Im realizing my use of capitalization totally makes my comment look like it was written by ai haha.

Could we get some kind of aggregated "[Children / Babies / Birthgivers / anything TFR-related]"?

@bens idk if there's a way to cleanly operationalize this. Definitely distinct from Gen Alpha though.

@bens on second thought this is probably too messy

Suggestion to add: Immigrants (Including "The Migrant", "Deportees", etc)

bought Ṁ1 YES

@Joshua How would this market resolve if the winner was Elon Musk and Teslas Full self driving feature

@NzJack0n My first guess is that'd be 50% Elon, 50% Self Driving Cars

@Joshua 👍 I think of waymo and Uber as not making their own cars, so wondered if a car manufacturer would count as yes in that list. Thanks

bought Ṁ1 YES

I want to add the new FOMC Chair but I think I should wait until they are confirmed in case something really weird happens

sold Ṁ3 YES

@Joshua could always do [The new FOMC chair] like we did with the new pope

bought Ṁ5 YES

@Marnix ...what if he names someone already on the list

filled a Ṁ11 YES at 13% order

ah shit yeah that's a fair point

bought Ṁ10 YES

@Joshua maybe just add kevin hassett?

@brod Done

opened a Ṁ250 YES at 1.0% order

Suggestion: robot(s) (not including self driving cars), maybe humanoid robots

Suggestion: clarify to what extent you'll resolve on who is spotlighted versus the named POTY

opened a Ṁ5,000 YES at 2% order

order up

bought Ṁ10 YES

Can we have Nicolas Maduro added?

@JeromeHPowell If there are big letters “AI,” meaning an AI that is building itself using humans: what does that imply? T

here are models that can self-code and redesign themselves.

Please explain: if the “Person of the Year” were an AI, and the picture on the cover of Time magazine represented what that AI can do, would the credit go to the AI?

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