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MANIFOLD
Who will be TIME Magazine's 2026 Person of the Year?
266
Ṁ10kṀ160k
Dec 31
36%
Other
13%
Pope Leo XIV (Robert Prevost)
10%
Donald Trump and/or JD Vance
8%
Artificial Intelligence Itself (Including ChatGPT or any other variation)
8%
Elon Musk
7%
Zohran Mamdani
6%
Dario Amodei
3%
Sam Altman
2%
Artemis II crew
1.6%
Xi Jinping

This question resolves to the TIME 2026 Person of the Year. It uses consolidated answers to avoid having to predict who the major party nominees will be, or the exact wording of any abstract/group answers.

If you would like to add a new candidate or consolidated answer to the market, submit it in a comment below. If a comment gets enough support, I'll open the market to submissions so that you can add it, and you'll get a bonus.

Note that all consolidated answers must be mutually exclusive, so no more specific or general versions of existing options. The goal is to cleanly divide the probabilistic landscape into non-overlapping categories.

If multiple options do end up being true, then those options will resolve to an even split of 100%.

@Joshua credit for market idea.

there will be no ai clarifications added to this market's description

if you have a question, just ask in the comments :) !!!

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@traders We need to beat Joshua's market, more volume for JPOW, more trading for JPOW, more limits for JPOW, let's goooooo :) ❤

Dario Amodei?

Elon Musk?

Add Peter Magyar

bought Ṁ10 YES

Artemis II crew

@MachiNi I’m sorry but it’s ridiculous to bet on anyone or anything else at this point. This is the most POTY nomination ever. Case closed.

Can we add Jeffrey Epstein? There's a high chance the files being released lead to major fallout, I think he's worth including

I have to imagine Minnesota residents are a possible candidate, can we add them?

@JRR sure!

@traders We need to beat Joshua's market, more volume for JPOW, more trading for JPOW, more limits for JPOW, let's goooooo :) ❤

@traders We are #1 right now, letsssssss gooooooo!!!!

he just boosted it, he is worried

@JeromeHPowell DESTROYED 👊 🇺‍🇸

opened a Ṁ250 YES at 2% order

I put a decent YES at 2% on self driving cars if anyone really wants to bet against.

opened aṀ1,000 NO at 86% order
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