Who will be on the TIME 2024 Person of The Year Shortlist?
➕
Plus
165
Ṁ59k
Dec 31
96%
Donald Trump
85%
Elon Musk
57%
[Consolidated Artificial Intelligence Itself Option]
53%
Kamala Harris
44%
[There will be no shortlist]
42%
[Consolidated Victims Of War/Civilians]
29%
Joe Biden
27%
Any type of Protestor
26%
Jensen Huang
25%
Yulia Navalnaya
25%
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
25%
The Supreme Court Of The United States
21%
Kendrick Lamar
20%
Jerome Powell
18%
Javier Milei
17%
Benjamin Netanyahu
17%
Caitlin Clark
16%
Emmanuel Macron
15%
Xi Jinping
15%
Sabrina Carpenter

In most past years, TIME has released a shortlist of people they considered naming as person of the year, in addition to the winner. If an answer submitted to this market is on the 2024 POTY list, including the winner, it resolves to YES.

An answer can resolve YES even if TIME does not use the exact wording of the answer, or if that person is a subcategory of a nominated group. The exception to this is if the option says "specifically" like the ChatGPT option does to distinguish it from the overall AI option.

If there is not a shortlist this year, all options resolve N/A except the winner and [There will be no shortlist].

This is an independent free response market, anyone can submit an answer and if other people trade on those answers you will receive unique trader bonuses.

For reference, the 2023 Shortlist was:

You can find other TIME markets by me here:

/Joshua/who-will-be-the-time-person-of-the-6ef43addcc5b

/Joshua/will-an-ai-system-product-company-c-1da3805fb738

/Joshua/which-ai-system-product-company-con

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bought Ṁ278 YES

"Reincarnated" is a really wonderful song.

@Marnix Kendrick had a much more successful year than most of the people on this list.

@TiredCliche he easily won his beef, had a months-spanning chart-topping hit, got booked for the Super Bowl, and dropped an album critics are calling his best in a while. I feel like he's at LEAST making the shortlist.

opened a Ṁ1,000 NO at 50% order

@Marnix couple big limit orders for NO up if you believe this

bought Ṁ20 YES

@benshindel I don't think it's 50%, but it's very silly that he was ranked below Gavin Newsome and Sam Altman before I started betting him up.

@TiredCliche I also have one at 35

bought Ṁ25 YES

@benshindel All I ever wanted was a black Grand National.

bought Ṁ5 NO

@Lorelai @Joshua duplicate. there was already an option below (e instead of è). This one should be N/Ad.

@Joshua is the early close (i.e. before election) intentional, or would you extend?

@deagol Good point, yeah I'll extend.

bought Ṁ50 NO

I expect the winner of the presidential election will make the shortlist, but I wouldn't expect them to pick the loser. So I'm surprised that Kamala and Trump are both so high.

Trump and Clinton were on the 2020/2016 shortlists, respectively.

ftr I'm not memeing I think if he dies he has a strong change of makng the shortlist.

It would be an interesting choice. Has Time nominated anyone posthumously before?

according to a Google search Steve Jobs was posthumously nominated. idk about the shortlist though.

looks like he made it to the poll.

Since Joe Biden and Kamala Harris jointly won in 2020, would Kamala Harris have resolved to YES if this were a market for the 2020 shortlist?

@Kraalnaxx Yeah, she'd resolve to yes in 2020.

bought Ṁ10 YES

From just what they've done so far, this seems like such a lock to me no matter how the rest of the year goes. They've been on the list in past years too.

To clarify on this one, this is for AI being nominated, not anyone related to AI. So Altman being nominated doesn't resolve this YES, but "Artificial Intelligence", ChatGPT, Gemini, Sora, etc would.

Clark 🐶boughtṀ125 NO

2% seems really low. You think he'd be too controversial?

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