Who will be on the TIME 2024 Person of The Year Shortlist?
Basic
85
แน€18k
Oct 31
84%
Kamala Harris
78%
Donald Trump
68%
Joe Biden
57%
Tim Walz
35%
Benjamin Netanyahu
35%
[Consolidated Artificial Intelligence Itself Option]
34%
Javier Milei
32%
Any type of Protestor
30%
Caitlin Clark
29%
The Supreme Court Of The United States
27%
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
26%
Jerome Powell
26%
Mark Kelly
25%
Trump Prosecutors
25%
Sam Altman
25%
[Consolidated Victims Of War/Civilians]
23%
Josh Shapiro
22%
Xi Jinping
21%
Patrick Mahomes
20%
Narendra Modi

In most past years, TIME has released a shortlist of people they considered naming as person of the year, in addition to the winner. If an answer submitted to this market is on the 2024 POTY list, including the winner, it resolves to YES.

An answer can resolve YES even if TIME does not use the exact wording of the answer, or if that person is a subcategory of a nominated group. The exception to this is if the option says "specifically" like the ChatGPT option does to distinguish it from the overall AI option.

If there is not a shortlist this year, all options resolve N/A except the winner and [There will be no shortlist].

This is an independent free response market, anyone can submit an answer and if other people trade on those answers you will receive unique trader bonuses.

For reference, the 2023 Shortlist was:

You can find other TIME markets by me here:

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bought แน€50 Kamala Harris NO

I expect the winner of the presidential election will make the shortlist, but I wouldn't expect them to pick the loser. So I'm surprised that Kamala and Trump are both so high.

Trump and Clinton were on the 2020/2016 shortlists, respectively.

ftr I'm not memeing I think if he dies he has a strong change of makng the shortlist.

It would be an interesting choice. Has Time nominated anyone posthumously before?

according to a Google search Steve Jobs was posthumously nominated. idk about the shortlist though.

looks like he made it to the poll.

Since Joe Biden and Kamala Harris jointly won in 2020, would Kamala Harris have resolved to YES if this were a market for the 2020 shortlist?

@Kraalnaxx Yeah, she'd resolve to yes in 2020.

The Supreme Court Of The United States
bought แน€10 The Supreme Court Of... YES

From just what they've done so far, this seems like such a lock to me no matter how the rest of the year goes. They've been on the list in past years too.

[Consolidated Artificial Intelligence Itself Option]

To clarify on this one, this is for AI being nominated, not anyone related to AI. So Altman being nominated doesn't resolve this YES, but "Artificial Intelligence", ChatGPT, Gemini, Sora, etc would.

Clark ๐Ÿถboughtแน€125Benjamin Netanyahu NO

2% seems really low. You think he'd be too controversial?