Who will be on the TIME 2024 Person of The Year Shortlist?
45
296
3.4k
Oct 31
76%
Caitlin Clark
56%
[Consolidated Artificial Intelligence Itself Option]
50%
NATO
50%
Jerome Powell
47%
The Supreme Court Of The United States
46%
Joe Biden
46%
Xi Jinping
45%
Trump Prosecutors
45%
Donald Trump
44%
Mike Johnson
41%
Any type of Protestor
33%
Benjamin Netanyahu
33%
[Consolidated Victims Of War/Civilians]
31%
Patrick Mahomes
30%
Sam Altman
30%
Javier Milei
30%
Janet Yellen
28%
Vladimir Putin
28%
Elon Musk
28%
Volodymyr Zelenskyy

In most past years, TIME has released a shortlist of people they considered naming as person of the year, in addition to the winner. If an answer submitted to this market is on the 2024 POTY list, including the winner, it resolves to YES.

An answer can resolve YES even if TIME does not use the exact wording of the answer, or if that person is a subcategory of a nominated group. The exception to this is if the option says "specifically" like the ChatGPT option does to distinguish it from the overall AI option.

If there is not a shortlist this year, all options resolve N/A except the winner and [There will be no shortlist].

This is an independent free response market, anyone can submit an answer and if other people trade on those answers you will receive unique trader bonuses.

For reference, the 2023 Shortlist was:

You can find other TIME markets by me here:

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Since Joe Biden and Kamala Harris jointly won in 2020, would Kamala Harris have resolved to YES if this were a market for the 2020 shortlist?

@Kraalnaxx Yeah, she'd resolve to yes in 2020.

The Supreme Court Of The United States
bought Ṁ10 The Supreme Court Of... YES

From just what they've done so far, this seems like such a lock to me no matter how the rest of the year goes. They've been on the list in past years too.

[Consolidated Artificial Intelligence Itself Option]

To clarify on this one, this is for AI being nominated, not anyone related to AI. So Altman being nominated doesn't resolve this YES, but "Artificial Intelligence", ChatGPT, Gemini, Sora, etc would.

boughtṀ125Benjamin Netanyahu NO

2% seems really low. You think he'd be too controversial?

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