Who will be on the TIME 2024 Person of The Year Shortlist?
➕
Plus
140
Ṁ42k
Dec 31
92%
Donald Trump
90%
Elon Musk
79%
Kamala Harris
39%
Any type of Protestor
37%
[Consolidated Victims Of War/Civilians]
35%
JD Vance
33%
[Consolidated Artificial Intelligence Itself Option]
29%
The Supreme Court Of The United States
29%
Caitlin Clark
27%
Benjamin Netanyahu
26%
Jerome Powell
24%
Javier Milei
22%
Xi Jinping
22%
Sam Altman
19%
Joe Biden
18%
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
16%
Vladimir Putin
14%
Narendra Modi
14%
Lai Ching-te (President elect of Taiwan)
13%
Janet Yellen

In most past years, TIME has released a shortlist of people they considered naming as person of the year, in addition to the winner. If an answer submitted to this market is on the 2024 POTY list, including the winner, it resolves to YES.

An answer can resolve YES even if TIME does not use the exact wording of the answer, or if that person is a subcategory of a nominated group. The exception to this is if the option says "specifically" like the ChatGPT option does to distinguish it from the overall AI option.

If there is not a shortlist this year, all options resolve N/A except the winner and [There will be no shortlist].

This is an independent free response market, anyone can submit an answer and if other people trade on those answers you will receive unique trader bonuses.

For reference, the 2023 Shortlist was:

You can find other TIME markets by me here:

/Joshua/who-will-be-the-time-person-of-the-6ef43addcc5b

/Joshua/will-an-ai-system-product-company-c-1da3805fb738

/Joshua/which-ai-system-product-company-con

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@Joshua is the early close (i.e. before election) intentional, or would you extend?

@deagol Good point, yeah I'll extend.

bought Ṁ50 Kamala Harris NO

I expect the winner of the presidential election will make the shortlist, but I wouldn't expect them to pick the loser. So I'm surprised that Kamala and Trump are both so high.

Trump and Clinton were on the 2020/2016 shortlists, respectively.

ftr I'm not memeing I think if he dies he has a strong change of makng the shortlist.

It would be an interesting choice. Has Time nominated anyone posthumously before?

according to a Google search Steve Jobs was posthumously nominated. idk about the shortlist though.

looks like he made it to the poll.

Since Joe Biden and Kamala Harris jointly won in 2020, would Kamala Harris have resolved to YES if this were a market for the 2020 shortlist?

@Kraalnaxx Yeah, she'd resolve to yes in 2020.

The Supreme Court Of The United States
bought Ṁ10 The Supreme Court Of... YES

From just what they've done so far, this seems like such a lock to me no matter how the rest of the year goes. They've been on the list in past years too.

[Consolidated Artificial Intelligence Itself Option]

To clarify on this one, this is for AI being nominated, not anyone related to AI. So Altman being nominated doesn't resolve this YES, but "Artificial Intelligence", ChatGPT, Gemini, Sora, etc would.

Clark 🐶boughtṀ125Benjamin Netanyahu NO

2% seems really low. You think he'd be too controversial?

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