Who will be on the TIME 2024 Person of The Year Shortlist?
Basic
72
แน€13k
Oct 31
97%
Kamala Harris
89%
Donald Trump
87%
JD Vance
83%
Joe Biden
55%
[Consolidated Artificial Intelligence Itself Option]
39%
Sam Altman
34%
Javier Milei
32%
Any type of Protestor
32%
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
30%
Caitlin Clark
29%
Benjamin Netanyahu
29%
The Supreme Court Of The United States
26%
Jerome Powell
25%
Trump Prosecutors
25%
[Consolidated Victims Of War/Civilians]
22%
Xi Jinping
22%
Vladimir Putin
21%
Patrick Mahomes
20%
Narendra Modi
20%
Lai Ching-te (President elect of Taiwan)

In most past years, TIME has released a shortlist of people they considered naming as person of the year, in addition to the winner. If an answer submitted to this market is on the 2024 POTY list, including the winner, it resolves to YES.

An answer can resolve YES even if TIME does not use the exact wording of the answer, or if that person is a subcategory of a nominated group. The exception to this is if the option says "specifically" like the ChatGPT option does to distinguish it from the overall AI option.

If there is not a shortlist this year, all options resolve N/A except the winner and [There will be no shortlist].

This is an independent free response market, anyone can submit an answer and if other people trade on those answers you will receive unique trader bonuses.

For reference, the 2023 Shortlist was:

You can find other TIME markets by me here:

/Joshua/who-will-be-the-time-person-of-the-6ef43addcc5b

/Joshua/will-an-ai-system-product-company-c-1da3805fb738

/Joshua/which-ai-system-product-company-con

Get แน€600 play money
Sort by:

ftr I'm not memeing I think if he dies he has a strong change of makng the shortlist.

It would be an interesting choice. Has Time nominated anyone posthumously before?

according to a Google search Steve Jobs was posthumously nominated. idk about the shortlist though.

looks like he made it to the poll.

Since Joe Biden and Kamala Harris jointly won in 2020, would Kamala Harris have resolved to YES if this were a market for the 2020 shortlist?

@Kraalnaxx Yeah, she'd resolve to yes in 2020.

The Supreme Court Of The United States
bought แน€10 The Supreme Court Of... YES

From just what they've done so far, this seems like such a lock to me no matter how the rest of the year goes. They've been on the list in past years too.

[Consolidated Artificial Intelligence Itself Option]

To clarify on this one, this is for AI being nominated, not anyone related to AI. So Altman being nominated doesn't resolve this YES, but "Artificial Intelligence", ChatGPT, Gemini, Sora, etc would.

Clark ๐Ÿถboughtแน€125Benjamin Netanyahu NO

2% seems really low. You think he'd be too controversial?