Who are all the people who will be Time Person of The Year through 2028? [Unlinked Free Response]
63
834
9.9K
2029
47%
Artificial Intelligence
32%
Joe Biden
25%
Donald Trump
24%
Trump Prosecutors
17%
Sam Altman
16%
Kamala Harris
15%
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
15%
The AI builders/engineers/scientists/leaders
14%
Xi Jinping
13%
Elon Musk
12%
Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud
11%
Mahmud Abbas
10%
Jerome Powell
10%
A.G.I.
10%
The civillians/the victims of war/the bystanders
9%
Vladimir Putin
9%
The spirit of Israel
9%
The Ukrainian Soldier
8%
ChatGPT
8%
Hollywood strikers

New market type! All options are unlinked from other options, and will resolve either 0% or 100%. Options can resolve early, while the market as a whole remains open until the end of 2028.

Any submitted name that is made Time's Person of The Year in any year through 2028 will resolve Yes. Any abstract concept/group that I judge to be synonymous with an abstract concept/group that is named Person of the Year will also resolve Yes. Feel free to submit answers that are duplicates or close synonyms to existing answers, I'll resolve all correct options to the full 100%.

Also, note that TIME has traditionally named the US president elect as the POTY in election years. In 2020 they also named the VP-elect as person of the year. So keep 2024 and 2028 in mind for your wagers!

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I assume you intend this to be 2023 through 2028?

Yes!

The AI builders/engineers/scientists/leaders

That should have been phrased better; perhaps "the people behind AI"

boughtṀ100Kamala Harris NO

See below! You sure that 2024 won't be a repeat of 2020 if Biden and Harris win the election?

bought Ṁ10 of Donald Trump NO

The vice president usually doesn't win it. She won it that time for being the first black woman vice president.

bought Ṁ10 of Kamala Harris YES

Fair argument!

@Joshua That would require that

  1. Biden chooses Kamala as his running mate again

  2. Biden gets elected (currently ~55%)

  3. Time Magazine chooses him again

I'd say combined probability is definitely lower than 30%

bought Ṁ10 of Artificial Intelligence NO

I doubt that they would give the award to "artificial intelligence" generally. If they are going to give a "person of the year" award it seems more likely to be to a specific personality such as ChatGPT or a future model that we don't know the name of.

bought Ṁ20 of ChatGPT YES

I'm trying not to be too picky about synonymous non-human answers here, because multiple answers can resolve to 100% at a time. But here's my general approach: If ChatGPT or Gemini wins, Artificial Intelligence also wins. But if ChatGPT wins, Gemini does not win.

bought Ṁ10 of Artificial Intelligence YES

@Joshua ah I see

@DylanSlagh

I doubt that they would give the award to "artificial intelligence" generally. If they are going to give a "person of the year" award it seems more likely to be to a specific personality

Agreed but of course there is an exception to this too: 2006

"You" was the official choice for Time's Person of the Year in 2006. The magazine set out to recognize the millions of people who anonymously contribute user-generated content to websites such as YouTube, MySpace, Facebook, Wikipedia and other wikis, and the multitudes of other websites featuring user contribution

Wikipedia

@firstuserhere They don't seem to have a problem giving it to a group of people and I'm guessing they might give it to a "non-human" artificial intelligence. But I doubt they would do both things at the same time! (a group of artificial intelligences)

If they do "You" again should I just resolve every answer to yes? 😅

@Joshua if "AI" wins, is chatgpt resolved as yes?

And if "the AI builders" win, that is not resolved as yes for AI/chatgpt, correct?

@Joshua By your logic, if Sam Altman wins then "The AI builders/engineers/scientists/leaders" should also win because Sam Altman is an AI leader, is that right?

So the resolution criteria state: "Any abstract concept/group that I judge to be synonymous with an abstract concept/group that is named Person of the Year will also resolve Yes."

The intent is that I'm being generous for cases where the POTY is not a single human being. When it's a single human being I'm only going to resolve that single human being to Yes.

@Joshua sounds very reasonable tbh. I think it's really stretching it to say that "The AI builders" is the same as Sama

bought Ṁ100 of Nikki Haley NO

@Joshua I also don't think that ChatGPT is a synonym for AI.

bought Ṁ20 of The spirit of Israel NO

"Selling not enabled in this market mode" lol

bought Ṁ0 of Joe Biden NO

Until they fix that glitch, you can just buy the opposite of your position to sell.

@Joshua oh I know! (not that I'd be selling any of my lucrative NO position on every single option)

boughtṀ90Joe Biden NO

The new US president is customarily the person of the year in election years. You should remove that limit order unless you're sure Biden isn't winning next year.

bought Ṁ50 of The spirit of Palestine NO

@Joshua TIL.

bought Ṁ10 of Joe Biden YES

People keep buying him down even after this comment though, so maybe the market really thinks there's a chance they break with tradition!

@Joshua well, there is a good chance he passes away or is too feeble to become president. The 14% for Kamala Harris seem to point in this direction.

bought Ṁ30 of Kamala Harris YES

Wait great pont, Kamala is super undervalued there! In 2020 they gave it to Biden and Harris both, it'd be weird if they gave it to just Biden in 2024.

bought Ṁ20 of ChatGPT NO

@Joshua ah shit, I keep leaving money on the table in this market 😂😂