Starting from the creation of this market on April 10th 2024. I reserve the right to N/A any redundant, inappropriate, or overly obscure additions. Attacks which are obviously manmade will resolve Yes even if the specific perpetrator is unclear. The threshold for an attack to count is 1 or more deaths, and/or 5+ injuries, and/or over $100,000 in property damage. Attacks need to be direct; a death from naval conflict in the red sea proper will not count for the Suez Canal.

For disasters which are too mysterious to confidently label as intentionally manmade or not, resolution will require either a solid credit claim by the group perpetrating the attack, or broad international consensus as to blame. If such a case is still deeply ambiguous after 6 months or the end of the market (whichever comes second), it will resolve 50/50.

Here is a sister market resolving at the end of 2030: