These are all statements that I consider to be unresolved and I genuinely have an open mind about, and I consider to have some prospect of having meaningful future developments in the next two decades. I have listed my current credences at market creation in the options. From time to time, and at least once a year, I will give any updates about how my beliefs have shifted. In 2045, I will resolve these to my current credences, or they may be resolved to my last stated credences after my death. I will resolve to YES or NO before that if I consider the matter resolved to my satisfaction, generally this is going to be about the level of evidence it takes for Wikipedia to say the answer as fact, but I may require slightly less evidence than this.

On any topic except Covid-19 I'm happy to be pointed to evidence or read arguments, but please don't expect me to defend my position, unless the credence goes very high or low, or to have a thorough debate, even in that case. It is a bit difficult to argue for the position that something is 30% likely. I am unlikely to announce an update quickly on news stories, since media stories on these topics are extremely unreliable and "X mystery solved" stories don't pan out most of the time. My update announcements will be at a slow pace so don't take slow updates as a sign my mind hasn't been changed by a development.

I can generally be considered to be a "skeptic" on this sort of question and to give weight to and have opinions similar to the group of people who would be associated with the names James Randi and Steven Novella. Sean Carroll's views will likely be influential on me as to the physics questions.

On Covid-19 please no discussion. I don't wan't to debate about this here. I genuinely have an open mind but am just going to follow debate elsewhere and give my updates as oracular pronouncements and not elaborate.

Please don't bet if you have a strong view on any of these particular topics and will be upset or feel it is unfair if I am not persuaded to your view.

Please ask for clarifications on the criteria for the questions, I would like these to be as unambiguous as possible.

Clarifications:

• D.B. Cooper must have made it out of the woods to count as having escaped.

• Dark matter is any matter that was not accounted for in the original galaxy rotation anomaly calculation and solves the discrepancy by having mass within the theory of general relativity.

• Covid being natural means that no direct common ancestor of the virus as originally sequenced from early covid cases in January 2020 was ever in a sample stored outside a human body by artificial means.

• “Local Void" counts as new cosmology for the Hubble tension.

• Having killed any of Jack the Ripper’s canonical five victims will be considered to constitute “being Jack the Ripper”

• 90% of the galaxy rotation curve anomaly is the threshold for what dark matter must explain.

• Only decedents of children of the Roanoke colonists who were born in America count, there is some possibility of one or more of the colonists having had a child, perhaps illegitimately, who was never in America.