This is a new version of of /Joshua/what-is-the-probability-that-covid but with the latest Numeric Market format.

If Zvi doesn't publicly state a probability after market creation and before the end of 2024, this market will resolve N/A.

If he does publicly state a probability, this market resolves to the option containing that probability, rounding down if he says a number that divides two buckets. So if he says 6%, this resolves to the 0-6% bucket and not the 6-12% bucket.

Please don't bother Zvi to give a probability just because of this market, I think it's better if he gives a number in his own time as new evidence comes out.

Note that Zvi betting on a market about COVID origins, including this one, wouldn't count as him stating a probability. It needs to be a direct statement.