@Gen is super helpful, patient, and generous with his time and attention (and Mana), particularly when there's something he can offer to work through a problem or escalate.

@strutheo Makes very interesting markets and is pretty friendly.

@goblinodds always seems super kind on Twitter and I'm glad she invited me here

I expect the pivot to turn the manifold into a greater thing. But with the changes my primary cozy place ( chess markets ) might become impossible.

I want to thank everyone who crossed any of my Manifold plays markets, pointed at design inconsistencies and mistakes, critisized and helped polish the games.

not sure what's happening with this bounty anymore given the changes but:

it's been a fun chapter to be in this Manifold community. when I first joined I would often say that this felt like one of the last remaining corners of the internet where people are nice to one another - even, for the most part, when debating perspectives or resolutions. there always felt like something unique about the interactions I had around here and mostly, it felt nice to find a group of strangers who valued discourse and exploring ideas like I did. more than that, seeing a whole team of people volunteering a ton of their time to moderate simply because they love this thing, and people who create projects (whether through Manifund or on their own accord) or write code just to make things better around here, is a big testament to how much of a communal effort it's taken for the site to be all that it is. and to how much the users really value Manifold.

it's not often you have a chance to actually communicate about an established product - outages, features, things you like, things that are a miss, etc - with staff and though I think their proud mad scientist approach in the way they choose it costs a lot of unnecessary time and energy and cycles for an already small team, at least, I suppose, it's been possible to speak up when they break-fix things (and when they roll a nice feature that catches us by surprise of course - it's nice to be able to send kudos and know they'll be seen!)

I know nothing in life can stay the same and I'm not particularly averse to change, but I guess these are always the things I thought about Manifold losing someday (as inevitable as it may be). as a community of any kind grows, its little nuances fade, and just as every city I've gone to has people who say "you should have seen this neighbourhood before! it was [quirky, arty, subversive, unique, friendly, whatever] but now..." of course, the new people who have come in love it for different reasons. now I'm one of those new people to the ones who have been here since long before I came along as an overly eager volunteer betting on a questionable market.

I know not everyone is a fan of my communication style (it's both great and greatly frustrating that we're a collection of very different people, isn't it?) and I'm arguably here way too much. still, I've made some great friends and learned a lot here so far and whatever is yet to come, it's been fun. this isn't a dramatic break up letter or anything - so far, I'm intending to stick around a little while to see what comes despite some very visceral reactions to a lot of the changes (and the terminology tbh). but this seemed like a good time to say something nice about nobody in particular, and about everybody all at once.

✌️🧡

💜 What I Love About Manifold Markets 💜

1. It’s fun! The most important feature, IMO, is that Manifold makes participating fun. Without this, it would be hard to have any of the other benefits

   1. Sports! Manifold makes sports predictions fun.

      1. The sports betting space on Manifold is BUMPing and keeps up with real money markets fairly effectively.

      2. Sports markets update very quickly. Markets often update (e.g. when there's a touchdown) before events are even shown on live streaming services.

      3. Creators like @dglid are RELENTLESS with filling every corner of the sports bets arena

      4. Prop bets

         1. These are fun and they don’t exist to this degree in other places

   2. Live events are cool and I think they will be a cool community feature in the future.

   3. Stock prices? Silly court? Whale bait? I love it all. I love the memes.

2. I really like the user experience

   1. Relative to what I would have expected for a site that lets you bet on real events with psuedo-money, Manifold makes it easy to sign up, easy to create markets and experiment, and easy to boost your content.

   2. Gamification. Given that, as I see it, this site is just serving to make prediction markets accessible, make information more transparent, tax incorrect beliefs, and make all of this fun while we're at it, I think that the gamification is a big win. It makes the site more enjoyable and engaging and, as a result, better than other prediction market hubs.

   3. Dashboards! @Joshua does a good job of creating useful dashboards for the community. Dashboards are also, IMO, the single most underrated feature of this site. I think it's a huge strength of the Manifold team that they're willing to create features like this and just throw them out there for anyone to use and experiment with. I've also been having a lot of fun experimenting with them (🚧 Probajoelistic's Market Drafts,  Apple Insider Rumor Scores, Probajoelistic's Markets ⚖️)

   4. (I also love that I can format this comment like an absolute maniac 🤪)

3. Niche communities

   1. An example: the Apple rumors community on Manifold is sneaky-smart.

      1. Apple product rumors thrive in particular on Manifold for reasons that I may outline elsewhere (there's a lot, and this is already too big)

4. Truth seeking

   1. I think @Joshua said at some point that “A common trait in prediction market enthusiasts is that we like to know what people are wrong about today”. I love that, but I also think that:

   2. Prediction markets make me very interested in what I might be wrong about

      1. When you have predictions about the future, you can basically put those in writing. If you are wrong, you get taxed for your incorrect beliefs. If you are right, you profit and help the community know what is true in the process. If you are surprised by new information, that becomes very apparent to you.

      2. For example, I had a lot of predictions that music AI would suck because, unlike text and images, there is a LOT less music available for training. When I heard my first Suno v3 song, I had to frantically sell aggressive shares in a dozen markets which made me realize just how surprised I was by this particular belief updating

5. Clear information

   1. Prediction markets are the best place to answer the question, “Okay, but what is actually probably going to happen?”

      1. This was really helpful to me with, for example, the Trump inditement/jail time news

   2. News from Manifold is not just the stuff that gets your attention. It’s the stuff that matters in the future. It’s the stuff that is uncertain but possible

      1. No “person dies horrible death for no reason” more “Here’s this scientific paper, why it’s important, and how likely we think it will actually change things in the world in the clearest possible format.” I love this about Manifold

   3. Long term predictions (rip)

6. Nerds!

   1. Calibration charts? Net worth/profit/balance charts? Annotated timelines? Yes, please! All of this and more!

   2. You gave us an API?!

   3. Dorks recreating playground capitalism

      1. @Tumbles is particularly good at this. I remember nerding out seeing that he created a credit score for himself with a market. At least one member is paying dividends to "shareholders" (followers), which brings me a lot of joy. Users are really turning Manifold into an elaborate internet-points economy. Stock markets, credit scores, banks, shareholder reports, dividends, jurisprudence.. even Ponzi schemes!

7. Community and engagement

   1. Manifold staff is constantly trying things out and having fun

      1. Let’s try this for like 24 hours and just see how it goes

      2. Themes (april fools)

   2. I can be a part of things

      1. Dashboards

      2. Create markets easily

   3. Discord

      1. The discord is incredibly active, has basically every question about the site answered, and makes it easy to make suggestions and report bugs

      2. Users there are helpful and friendly! This is kind of rare in nerdy communities (😏 Stack Overflow)

   4. This community loves it’s community

      1. Youtube videos about markets

      2. Bloggers (ACX) and podcasters (e.g. Bayesian Conspiracy) following it

      3. People making memes, art, and music about Manifold

So, I guess the somebody of this post is all of you! Especially the Manifold team. I really like this community and I hope it stays thrivin' 😅

@Austin made the entire site! Or at least cofounded it. Great move!

@case for being manifolds worst paid employee

@Bayesian @jim @AmmonLam @houstonEuler @Austin @SanghyeonSeo for the many enlightening reflections and for true good faith engagement

@strutheo @jskf @mattyb @Joshua @shankypanky for the fun chats on discord + reminding me of optics to what I say

@Schneefackel @Shump @mint @SemioticRivalry for providing fresh perspectives

AND especially @Gen & @Eliza for sponsoring my first week on Manifold 💜

@SemioticRivalry is a fantastic forecaster, and when DM'd always provides great rationales for his forecasts.

@jacksonpolack consistently has great and reasoned takes, and demonstrates unwavering integrity.