Manifold: Live! Episode 3 - Sun 12/17 @ 2 PM PT - What will we ask @chrisjbillington?
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How did you get into forecasting by pretending to be an epidemiologist on Twitter?
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What can you tell us about recent user acquisition & retention trends, as well as longer-term forecasts, and their effects?
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Who will win the Masters league? Currently it seems to be pretty close race.
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How much success on Manifold depends on being good trader vs good forecaster?
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If you could magically change one habit/belief/trait/tendency of the average Masters-rank user, what would it be?
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[BINGO: 5 Audience-Submitted suggestions resolve yes]
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How are you so good?? How do I become like you 😭
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So what actually /is/ LK-99?
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How does your location and timezone affect your perspective, efforts, and outcomes relative to the average user?
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What are the biggest factors that affect how many markets are mispriced? What’s best way for non-physicists and non-coders to spot them?
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As a no holder, the FUH step market scares me. Can Chris please soothe my fears?
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[5 of my questions here resolve YES 😂 including this one]
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If you had to assign the average Manifold user some required reading, what would it be?
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How much effort have you put into your Manifold User Stats code at this point?
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Now that there’s reposts, who are your top follows?
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Australian politics markets
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What prediction of yours are you most proud of in retrospect?
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According to @eliza comments you have access to a magic Excel spreadsheet which, if made Manifold-public, would give all traders more visibility into user engagement. Should I trust them on that?

Manifold Live's Episode 3 will air live Sunday afternoon 12/17 at 2 Pacific with special guest @chrisjbillington

Chris is one of the best traders on the site, with a lot of big investments in LK-99, SpaceX, and User Engagement markets.

If we ask Chris a question submitted to this market, I'll resolve that option to yes!

Audience Prizes:

  • 500 mana to the best suggestion which resolves Yes

  • 500 mana to the best suggestion that resolves No

  • Arbitarary other prizes for good audience-ing

Watch the show on:


You can watch the show as it airs, and bet on this market and others as you see topics come up!

I will allow myself a budget of 100 mana to make token bets on options here, and will request that @NcyRocks do the same to avoid any perverse incentives. 

If you'd like to be notified about the show on Manifold, I suggest watching/betting on our guest market:

Who will appear on "Manifold: Live!", our weekly show for the Manifold Community Fund initiative?

You can also follow the Manifold Dashboard for the show and follow the show's account here.

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I never got around to doing prizes for this episode!

Sending M500 to @oh for "If you had to assign the average Manifold user some required reading, what would it be?" and M500 to @Weezing for "What prediction of yours are you most proud of in retrospect?"

I've added both those questions as options for the episode 6 market, which has just gone live!

nice episode 🙌

That was great! I really enjoyed talking to the two of you @NcyRocks and @Joshua. Thanks so much :).

@chrisjbillington It was great having you on! Definitely hope we can do it again soon.

@oh (I want those trader bonuses lol)

Tumbles 🦚boughtṀ280How much success on ... YES

@Tumbles Impressive

@oh I had put the bet amount in and was hovering over the confirm button as the show was winding down LOL

If you could magically change one habit/belief/trait/tendency of the average Masters-rank user, what would it be?

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Going live soon - come warm up in the Discord lounge!

Who will win the Masters league? Currently it seems to be pretty close race.

This just became a more topical question as Chris surged into first place overnight!

There is that whole rumor about @chrisjbillington is using Power BI to make Manifold user data dance, in a very special proprietary spreadsheet.

Happening on Sunday (or Monday on this side of the Date Line)!

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Looking forward to this! Have an idea of what we should talk about? Add it here!

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This is cool!

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Excited to watch live!