What will be true of this weekend's "Manifold: Live!" gaming stream?
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Mar 24
6%
@NcyRocks makes Slay the Spire choices based on market options
Resolved
YES
@SneakySly shows up
Resolved
YES
@NcyRocks will hold over 300 coins at any point
Resolved
YES
@NcyRocks will defeat the first elite on Daily CLimb
Resolved
YES
We'll play "Slay the Spire"
Resolved
YES
@Joshua will join
Resolved
YES
@Joshua will die before @NCyRocks on the daily run
Resolved
YES
@NcyRocks will hold over 600 coins at any point
Resolved
YES
The stream will start on time
Resolved
YES
Dies on first act this run
Resolved
YES
@NcyRocks will reach the first boss on Daily Climb
Resolved
YES
@NcyRocks will die to a boss
Resolved
YES
Defeats first boss on Daily Climb
Resolved
YES
@NcyRocks will defeat the second elite on Daily Climb
Resolved
YES
@NcyRocks will purchase over 2 relics in a single shop
Resolved
YES
First boss killed on Daily Climb if I Forge
Resolved
N/A
First boss killed on Daily Climb if I Rummage
Resolved
N/A
I'll win if I choose the first starting point

Now that manifold.markets/tv is here, it's so easy to do a futarchic gaming stream that it's gotten me (@NcyRocks) to actually set it up!

Here's the plan:

  • I'll play Slay the Spire for the first time.

  • You can help me win by betting on which decisions will lead to victory!

  • You can also bet here on random crap!

  • I don't have to do whatever the market says, but the idea is to see how well I can do at a challenging new game using only prediction markets.

Watch here: https://manifold.markets/tv/16

Get Ṁ600 play money
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I don’t think this was satisfied, but I’ll check on Twitch before resolving.

Huge thanks to everyone who watched, especially those who helped me out ( including @Joshua @Austin @SneakySly @AmmonLam @snazzlePop)! I had a lot of fun and got further in the Daily Climb than I expected, so I’ll schedule another time to try finish that run as well as I can.

I also feel like I barely scratched the surface of what Manifold TV is capable of, so let me know if you have any ideas for how to make the next stream better!

Note that some of these options resolve based on the run, not the stream itself - I'll leave it up to whoever made those options, but they might want to keep those markets open since I intend to pick the run back up later.

@ManifoldLive This is a rough thing to say post-stream without it being mentioned in the description. Why wouldn't it be a conditional? I assumed everything had to happen this weekend because of the title.

bought Ṁ10 Will reach the secon... YES

@Panfilo same here

@Panfilo Good point, I apologise for the ambiguity. This is based on my interpretation of options that others added - I think it should be up to them how it resolves.

But you’re right, the market title implies that anything that didn’t happen in this stream should resolve NO.

@Panfilo @AmmonLam Actually no, I’m making an executive decision on this: options resolve NO if they didn’t happen on the stream unless the creator says to override it. Let me know if this negatively affects your bets and I’ll try to make up the difference.

You can unresolve unlinked questions now, so I’ll resolve them in a few minutes after you guys have had a chance to bet them down.

@NcyRocks Good call, especially since the TV page still doesn’t show descriptions or comments.

@NcyRocks makes Slay the Spire choices based on market options
bought Ṁ80 @NcyRocks makes Slay... NO

So we have evidence of this happening 2+ times?

@Panfilo I offloaded 2 decisions to the markets, but one of them just said that the choice didn't matter, so I only really made one decision based off markets.

bought Ṁ50 @NcyRocks makes Slay... YES

@Panfilo ohhhh that's your interpretation of it? because choices is plural 2+ times is needed for it to resolve yes?

bought Ṁ10 @NcyRocks makes Slay... NO

@Bayesian, does one choice based on markets resolve YES?

@NcyRocks I didn't intend for it to (didn't think about the fact that i was wording it with a plural), but the wording does make it sound that way, uh I don't think my intent supersedes the spirit of the question ig

@Bayesian Hey it would be a fascinating discord convo with the mods as to whether plural can mean one, I bet we’d get some weirdos, I’m not even kidding

bought Ṁ100 Answer #36cba3a1f664 NO

@Panfilo why though? lol

@shankypanky So if they rule against me I can search the site for absent creators who used plural and troll them until they realize the error of their ways

@Panfilo hahah we all get our thrills somehow

@Joshua will join
bought Ṁ1,000 @Joshua will join YES

can resolve yes

reposted

Starting soon!

@NcyRocks I feel like I should tag @SneakySly in this - it’d be great to have you in chat!

reposted

I’m doing a gaming stream on Manifold TV!

@NcyRocks Hype!