100 mana to the first person to give a convincing reason for why AI is spiking

But that just replaces one question with another.

@ItsMe the market mechanism aggregated whatever public or private info existed

My friend is hooking up with the girl that runs the social media accounts for Salesforce and he says she already has the connect on who it will be already. No surprise here.

Do you know who it is?

Buying some pope now more people are accusing him of being the antichrist.

@MartinRandall it'd be bigger news if a pope wasn't being accused of being the antichrist

yeah yeah i get the precedent and all but trump at 5% really does feel low, he is unquestionably The Main Character on a level that i think he wasn't even in his first term

2500M against Huang at 18%. Y'all gotta be tripping. You can't actually believe that Time is going to choose this no-name as person of the year. He sold a bunch of computer chips. So the hell what

@TiredCliche "You don't actually understand, in two years the chips will understand how to play chess, they'll drive your car and code fairy chess websites for you!!"

Yeah whatever I've heard all that before

@TiredCliche "oh in 2027 the ai will learn how to eat pussy!" Great, then maybe your mom will stop calling me every Tuesday night. Another 2000 against Jensen.

WILL IT LEAK?

https://manifold.markets/bens/how-far-in-advance-will-the-time-po

How far in advance will the winner leak? Where do I bet on that? I tried searching but couldn't find it.

@Eliza on it

Putin at .1 is undervalued, I put a little on him.

@Yakushi12345 Personally I think very many of these are undervalued. I have YES holdings on ten, I think

@JussiVilleHeiskanen I have yes holdings on like every option

@bens Including OTHER? I'll be so pissed off if this resolves Other.

Meta: it’s wild the extent to which prediction markets have been silently become mainstream over the last 18 months.

@spider to what extent is that based on your history/cookies etc? When I do the same search I don't get any mention of prediction markets

@Fion no clue if google is doing anything with location / IP / device hash, but I reliably see this in an incognito window without any cookies or history

Might as well get next year's market up now:

I've found that Manifold has a pretty consistent bias towards all things AI and betting against that tends to be profitable. I highly doubt "Person of the Year" would be given to a non-person. Given that Francis won Time POTY the year he was elected Pope and we now have the first American Pope, 18% for Leo XIV seems way too low. Imo Leo should be the highest option, followed by Jensen Huang and then Mamdani

@SentientTree Manifold AI bias, yes, but also don’t forget:

https://content.time.com/time/covers/0,16641,19830103,00.html

@JimHays that was very much hype too. We were all going to use computers to store our cooking recipes...

@SentientTree I would join you in fleecing this, but I am waay overexposed

@SentientTree I agree with most of your points, but you should know that Time usually doesn't pick a pope just for being elected. The only time that happened was in 2013, when Pope Francis won it. But that was a special year, because

a) it was the first time in 600 years that a pope had resigned, and

b) Benedict was one of the most conservative popes in contemporary history, and Francis was one of the most progressive, which made for a dramatic shift.

The only special thing about Pope Leo is that he's the first American pope. But do people really care about that? Probably not. I do consider him to be the frontrunner, though, because there aren't any strong candidates this year. I give him a 20% chance.

@ItsMe manifold is delusional about AI.

manifold has somewhat closely tracked some pretty liquid real money prediction markets about time POTY, this is giga cope. @ me if you wanna bet against ai happenings tho!

@Bayesian Sorry I don't know anything about Time Magazine, all I know is Manifold is full of people who are convinced "AI" is something regular average people think about as more than a sideshow.

@Eliza All sorts of places are full of people who are wrong, let us not be defined by the wrongest of us but rather by our market prices. Any market you think is very wrong? I’m happy to provide liquidity

@Bayesian Talk is cheap.

@ItsMe TIME is an American-centric publication though. Being the first American Pope is a big deal.

@Bayesian @Eliza https://manifold.markets/_deleted_/will-at-least-4-of-the-7-millennium?r=U2VudGllbnRUcmVl

@SentientTree i'd definitely bet more on shorter term markets because 10+ year markets are not very meaningful considering the interest rate, but presumably you wanna bet no, I'll offer plenty of YES at 43% if you want (ah nvm, the market is in fact very liquid, is your issue that the market isn't updating to your view then? that's the benefit of shorter term markets, they do do that pretty fast if you're right)