look, AI is at 67, sixxxxx sevennnnnnn, sixxxxxxxxxx- sevennnnnnnnn

@Bayesian can you explain the leak for me?

@JeromeHPowell Line go up. https://polymarket.com/event/time-2025-person-of-the-year?tid=1765330259656

Was there a leak or what?

@ItsMe Polymarket market mechanism leaked non-transparent bits of evidence about outcome to observers

I'm surprised to be honest. I didn't think they'd pick AI this year given that they didn't pick it in 2023 when the AI frenzy was at its peak. Plus they usually pick something more topical. Generative AI is not something particular to 2025; it's been in the mainstream for years now.

@Bayesian what do you mean non-transparent?

@ItsMe it's taken over the economy this year. It's gone from something that could have conceivably petered out without Changing Everything to something which will clearly Change Everything.

My impression was the opposite. There has been relatively little development of AI in 2025, and people started talking about how it was all a bubble.

@Bayesian what does that mean? Like some position on polymarket looks suspicious or what?

@ItsMe I'll note that historically POTY has usually been announced on Wednesdays on the second week of December at 7:30am ET, and the odds on AI started shooting up exactly 12 hours before this. Could be seeing a peace prize situation (unsure of all of this)

@ItsMe it probably was their runner-up idea in 2023 but Taylor Swift was just a much more obvious choice at the time. And then they almost always do the POTUS election winner

@BrendanFinan I'm not sure that Taylor Swift was an obvious choice, though. It was the first time ever that their pick was based on pop celebrity culture. It's still a head scratcher as to how TIME managed to pass off a pop singer as the most influential person of the year. So it seemed to me that AI losing to Taylor Swift meant that the folks at TIME didn't think highly of AI.

Hopium: After last year's leak, imagine Time decided to let out a fake leak to mess people up.

yehhh lad weeee

@Joshua can you add as an answer meme/67?

@JeromeHPowell please no

CEO of the year has been given to Neal Mohan. This should be a blow to Jensen Huang. I don't think he would be POTY and not CEO of the year at the same time.

I haven't studied economics before. Would markets with a combined $33,000,000 in volume have more efficient prices than a market with $20k in play-money volume?

https://polymarket.com/event/time-2025-person-of-the-year
https://kalshi.com/markets/kxtime/times-person-of-the-year

@BrendanFinan juries sometimes are aware of public knowledge perceptions and that makes for a certain weird paradoxical effect

@BrendanFinan You'd be surprised

@BrendanFinan check out the 2028 primaries markets and you might re-think this idea

Probably meaningless but CEO of the year and entertainer of the year are both men. Maybe not the best look to make another man POTY!

@MachiNi I noticed a lot of the options were men a few days ago but didn't know how to bet on that.

@MachiNi