This question resolves to the TIME 2025 Person of The Year. It uses consolidated answers to avoid having to predict who the major party nominees will be, or the exact wording of any abstract/group answers.
If you would like to add a new candidate or consolidated answer to the market, submit them in a comment below. If a comment gets enough support, I'll open the market to submissions so that you can add it and you'll get the unique trader bonuses.
Note that all consolidated answers must be mutually exclusive, so no more specific or general versions of existing options. The goal is to cleanly divide the probabilistic landscape into non-overlapping categories.
If multiple options do end up being true, then those options will resolve to an even split of 100%.
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i sorta get the logic behind pushing jensen but i still feel like he personally hasn't been particularly newsworthy; 1999 bezos is the closest analogue as the leader of the company driving a stock market boom but amazon was a lot more customer-facing, compared to nvidia being the facilitator for ai/data center mania but not the operator
plus the AI boom isn't translating to "normal people" being confident in the economy (especially given the trump tariffs) the way the dotcom boom did
really it feels like this should be trump's award but they don't want to give it to him again, maybe they do something like "the federal employees" or ICE? hard to say
@Joshua should it be Jensen Huang, would it be a split pot to percentage between him and AI? Can we get a clarification? or will you decide then, after consultation?
@jim Yes, I think the AI option requires that AI (or some related term or non-human entity) is somehow called out specifically as "Person of the Year", not if it's just a person known for work in the AI field.
@TimothyJohnson5c16 Inside parenthesis it says (including ChatGPT or any other variation), is why I ask. I too read other variation as meaning any other model
@Lilemont He's the president and CEO of the world's biggest and arguably most important (in that the stock markets turn on its success) company, and an obvious proxy to give the nod to AI.
@DonaldTrump I think we don't actually want content like that on here. The discussion sections are supposed to be good places and not so chaotic. And I'm also not a big fan of the entire collection of these impersonator accounts.
@FecalAbhuman @DonaldTrump @Eliza We gotta destroy this impersonator account, I was always the real president. And my comments are so much more Trumpian as well!
https://manifold.markets/post/manifold-is-back
https://manifold.markets/post/i-am-the-president-i-am-realdonaldt