This question resolves to the TIME 2025 Person of The Year. It uses consolidated answers to avoid having to predict who the major party nominees will be, or the exact wording of any abstract/group answers.
If you would like to add a new candidate or consolidated answer to the market, submit them in a comment below. If a comment gets enough support, I'll open the market to submissions so that you can add it and you'll get the unique trader bonuses.
Note that all consolidated answers must be mutually exclusive, so no more specific or general versions of existing options. The goal is to cleanly divide the probabilistic landscape into non-overlapping categories.
If multiple options do end up being true, then those options will resolve to an even split of 100%.
These rules should be considered to be in draft form upon market creation, and I am willing to update them if anyone has suggestions for improvements within the spirit of the market.
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@JoshuaWilkes I propose a consolidated "The Migrant" or "People who have been deported"
@Marnix ya I think the odds of Garcia being TIME POTY are vanishingly small, but perhaps a broader category like that might be reasonable
Can we have "the president-elect (with or without vp-elect)" as a consolidated option, so that this market doesn't just become another "who will win" market?
@MattLashofSullivan No it's still a good answer! The newly elected president is sometimes the POTY the year after they are elected. Oh, I'll edit it to "the person elected president in 2024" to b clear to others though.
I'd like to nominate strikers/unions as a group