This question resolves to the TIME 2025 Person of The Year. It uses consolidated answers to avoid having to predict who the major party nominees will be, or the exact wording of any abstract/group answers.
If you would like to add a new candidate or consolidated answer to the market, submit them in a comment below. If a comment gets enough support, I'll open the market to submissions so that you can add it and you'll get the unique trader bonuses.
Note that all consolidated answers must be mutually exclusive, so no more specific or general versions of existing options. The goal is to cleanly divide the probabilistic landscape into non-overlapping categories.
If multiple options do end up being true, then those options will resolve to an even split of 100%.
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@DonaldTrump I think we don't actually want content like that on here. The discussion sections are supposed to be good places and not so chaotic. And I'm also not a big fan of the entire collection of these impersonator accounts.
@FecalAbhuman @DonaldTrump @Eliza We gotta destroy this impersonator account, I was always the real president. And my comments are so much more Trumpian as well!
https://manifold.markets/post/manifold-is-back
https://manifold.markets/post/i-am-the-president-i-am-realdonaldt
Xi Jinping maybe a little bit underrated if Time wanted to make a broad argument about the geopolitical changes going on in the world. Also a player in the AI race etc.
Ex, in 5 years is "what was Xi up to" or "what was the pope up to" more likely to matter historically?
@dgga NYC has a larger population than 38 US states and a hundred or so countries (including, say, Denmark, Finland, Norway, or Ireland). The NYC metro area has a GDP over $2 trillion; the city itself, more than $1 trillion. It hosts the UN, the NYSE, and the headquarters for all sorts of international companies and institutions. (Like TIME Magazine.) He may not be a president or a governor but the mayor of NYC is arguably the mayor of the world's capital, and his decisions have a big ripple effect.
Also, Mamdani signals a potential upheaval in Democratic politics. Even though wokeness and progressive politics have galvanized the activist base since at least the collapse of Occupy, that platform hasn't achieved much in the way of electoral success or policy wins. The Dems' established leaders, meanwhile, are cagey political operators who work their way up through political machines, committees, and kingmakers. Cuomo was a symbol of that fraying Dem establishment, and Mamdani became a populist hero when he ousted him in the primary - and beat him again in the general.
This is likely to inspire other would-be Democratic populists, and may indicate an imminent preference cascade among Blue voters. Remember how the GOP was run by stuffy neocons for 20 years until Donald grabbed the wheel and made it into the Trump show? Mamdani's election could be the bellwether for another big realignment.
@dgga I don't think the NYC mayoral election has global significance, but the media clearly do. Journalists were eagerly asking politicians in the UK, Australia and who knows where else to comment on it, and seemed genuinely confused when they were reluctant to answer. So it's not unfathomable to me that a US-based outlet could go a step further
@ItsMe
8 political figures who weren't heads of state have won time person of the year. And all held offices higher than Mamdani other than Giuliani (and that was after 9/11). Choosing comparable figures to Mamdani would suggest the base rate should be around 2% and I don't think there is sufficient things about Mamdani this year that are sufficient to increase the base right x4.
James F. Byrnes (1946) — U.S. Secretary of State
Henry Kissinger (1972) — U.S. National Security Advisor/Secretary of State
Henry Kissinger (1973) — still not head of state
Lê Đức Thọ (1973) — Vietnamese negotiator, not head of state
George P. Shultz (1983) — U.S. Secretary of State
Mikhail Gorbachev (1984) — senior Soviet political figure, not yet head of state (he became General Secretary in 1985)
Newt Gingrich (1994) — Speaker of the U.S. House
Rudy Giuliani (2001) — Mayor of New York City
@SaiVazquez ummm... if it was "The Humans Behind AI" and listed Musk, Altman, Huang, Hassabis, and Ellison, or something, I'd argue it should resolve to 16.7% each to each of those and to "AI", but it's up to @Joshua ? There were pretty elaborate resolution rules in previous years' iterations that I think he'll default to
@bens I think it won't resolve to "Other" as long as someone on this list shares the prize? But idk how that would work if it's like 5 different people and only one is on this list?! ummm... seems like it could get weird
Like what if it was 2018 and Jamal Khashoggi was the only journalist listed in this market.
Would he get 100%?
Or 50% him and 50% Other?
Or 25% to him and 75% to Other (because there were 4 different covers and he was on one of them)?
Or would he get 8% and 92% Other (because there were a total of about 13 journalists mentioned by name in the magazine)?
@KeithManning personally I think in terms of lasting milestones, Ellison is a playable long shot.