Who will be TIME Magazine's 2025 Person of the Year?
1.3k
47kṀ1.2m
Dec 11
25%
Artificial Intelligence (Including ChatGPT or any other variation)
19%
Pope Leo XIV (Robert Prevost)
17%
Other
11%
Donald Trump and/or JD Vance
5%
Jensen Huang
4%
Gen Z
3%
Sam Altman
3%
Zohran Mamdani
2%
Benjamin Netanyahu
2%
Elon Musk
1.9%
Charlie Kirk
1%
Jerome Powell
1%
Larry Ellison

This question resolves to the TIME 2025 Person of The Year. It uses consolidated answers to avoid having to predict who the major party nominees will be, or the exact wording of any abstract/group answers.

If you would like to add a new candidate or consolidated answer to the market, submit them in a comment below. If a comment gets enough support, I'll open the market to submissions so that you can add it and you'll get the unique trader bonuses.

Note that all consolidated answers must be mutually exclusive, so no more specific or general versions of existing options. The goal is to cleanly divide the probabilistic landscape into non-overlapping categories.

If multiple options do end up being true, then those options will resolve to an even split of 100%.

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bought Ṁ10 YES

AI still seems like an enigma in this market. Very unclear how likely time is to pull the trigger on it, and how they would do it. Huang seems a little underrated in that they may want to avoid the "you" problem and name the nvidia ceo to represent the whole industry.

I just cant see then picking pope Leo. Feels like U.S. bias, and ironically he looks

like a continuity of Francis so less "significant" that a leadership change happened for poty.

The fact that the Pope went from 38% to 16% without any real change in relevant world events suggests that prediction markets are much more handwavy and vibes based than people think.

@ItsMe same thing with AI, which went rose from 7% to 33% for no apparent reason.

@ItsMe I do think pope leo has been less involved in world events/the news than I’d have expected a few months back. but yeah a lot of price movement is just, some guy decided to bet today

@Joshua be the funniest thing if the AI bubble burst one week after it being given Person Of

@JussiVilleHeiskanen if anything that would solidify the choice

Some version of "Gen Z" seems quite possible, but specifically "Gen Z" seems unlikely

@Rhys I think any variation counts

payouts doubled if it's @Genzy

bought Ṁ50 NO

@Joshua Would something like "Nepal's Gen Z" count here?

@Kraalnaxx That seems fair

I’m long on Netanyahu, I think 1.4% is too low. The country he runs has been determined to be committing genocide by the UN, most of the UN walks out on his speech, etc. There are countless other historical events that I could list here, not saying he’s the most likely but 1.4% is too low probability.

bought Ṁ50 YES

Maybe "the drone"

bought Ṁ5 YES

I hate predicting Leo, but knowing Time Magazine.

bought Ṁ1 YES

Some total nut, guaranteed. Although they did manage to choose sensibly once, Lex Friedman.

@ItsMe I could see "Gen Z" being the winner

@Joshua could we get Gen Z as an option? It doesn't overlap with any of the other options.

@Joshua thanks. I'm assuming that it's any variation of "Gen Z", right? So something like "Generation Z Protestors" would also count

Sorry, me being silly. What if Putin buys the farm as a result of the Ukraine war, and the winner is Victims of War. Do Putin buyers get paid off?

sold Ṁ92 NO

Would "The AI CEOs" be the most chaotic winner for this markets resolution?

@Yakushi12345 For extra crazy points, it could be something like "AI CEOs and Politicians", where like Elon Musk counts for both, and like half of the other people count for one or the other

Can you imagine the madness on here if "Prediction Markets" are declared the TIME POTY?

@bens "the forecaster" "the predictor" "the oracle"

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