I feel like there's at least a 10% chance that the TIME POTY is some sort of unhinged gray area this year, like "The Humans Behind AI" (and like 7 ppl on this list are profiled) or "The New Oligarchs" (same thing) or "The Pope in the age of AI" or some BS.

@bens Would that resolve as Other, or can multiple options resolve here?

@SaiVazquez ummm... if it was "The Humans Behind AI" and listed Musk, Altman, Huang, Hassabis, and Ellison, or something, I'd argue it should resolve to 16.7% each to each of those and to "AI", but it's up to @Joshua ? There were pretty elaborate resolution rules in previous years' iterations that I think he'll default to

@bens I think it won't resolve to "Other" as long as someone on this list shares the prize? But idk how that would work if it's like 5 different people and only one is on this list?! ummm... seems like it could get weird

Like what if it was 2018 and Jamal Khashoggi was the only journalist listed in this market.

Would he get 100%?

Or 50% him and 50% Other?

Or 25% to him and 75% to Other (because there were 4 different covers and he was on one of them)?

Or would he get 8% and 92% Other (because there were a total of about 13 journalists mentioned by name in the magazine)?

I’m long on both Musk and Netanyahu, 2% is far too low.

@KeithManning personally I think in terms of lasting milestones, Ellison is a playable long shot.

Is this nonsense over yet? Just do the photo shoot with Trump and let’s get this over with for fucks sake.

I don't know if he'd agree to one

Interesting that the pope was high when he wasn't doing much, but hasn't risen though he has been ferociously active now.

@JussiVilleHeiskanen this website (or prediction markets in general) is deep in the AI/LLM bubble. It would probably always be profitable in the long run to bet against AI going mainstream, here. Literally everything questionable about this market can be explained by people dumping mana at the AI option.

If anyone wants to buy Larry Ellison at 1%, I'm ready to sell.

4 months ago Other was at 18%. The options which have been added since then currently total to about 17%. Yet Other remains almost the same. I think people are really undervaluing Other.

@ItsMe People keep dipbuying AI, sinking all the rest, gradually below 1%

AI still seems like an enigma in this market. Very unclear how likely time is to pull the trigger on it, and how they would do it. Huang seems a little underrated in that they may want to avoid the "you" problem and name the nvidia ceo to represent the whole industry.

I just cant see then picking pope Leo. Feels like U.S. bias, and ironically he looks

like a continuity of Francis so less "significant" that a leadership change happened for poty.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nvidia-becomes-first-5-trillion-company-in-history-as-trump-comments-gtc-reveal-boost-stock-to-new-heights-133101110.html

@Yakushi12345 Hard to really view Leo as U.S. bias when he's the Pope. Not exactly snubbing any non-American popes by giving him the nod.

The fact that the Pope went from 38% to 16% without any real change in relevant world events suggests that prediction markets are much more handwavy and vibes based than people think.

@ItsMe same thing with AI, which went rose from 7% to 33% for no apparent reason.

@ItsMe I do think pope leo has been less involved in world events/the news than I’d have expected a few months back. but yeah a lot of price movement is just, some guy decided to bet today

And Mamdani has doubled now that he won. Even though Manifold gave him a 90%+ probability of winning for months.

@ItsMe the media attention is somewhat unexpected, inflated by the Democrat success in other, less certain elections. He's become the poster boy for the Dem sweep.

@Joshua be the funniest thing if the AI bubble burst one week after it being given Person Of

@JussiVilleHeiskanen if anything that would solidify the choice