This question resolves to the TIME 2025 Person of The Year. It uses consolidated answers to avoid having to predict who the major party nominees will be, or the exact wording of any abstract/group answers.
If you would like to add a new candidate or consolidated answer to the market, submit them in a comment below. If a comment gets enough support, I'll open the market to submissions so that you can add it and you'll get the unique trader bonuses.
Note that all consolidated answers must be mutually exclusive, so no more specific or general versions of existing options. The goal is to cleanly divide the probabilistic landscape into non-overlapping categories.
If multiple options do end up being true, then those options will resolve to an even split of 100%.
These rules should be considered to be in draft form upon market creation, and I am willing to update them if anyone has suggestions for improvements within the spirit of the market.
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@JoshuaWilkes I propose a consolidated "The Migrant" or "People who have been deported"
@Marnix ya I think the odds of Garcia being TIME POTY are vanishingly small, but perhaps a broader category like that might be reasonable
@bens I'm in favor of it being this broad. If they went this direction I feel like it'd make sense for them to focus both on people who have been deported AND people who are still in the United States.
@ThomasPoltoranos Historically it's been a mixed bag. My vibe right now is this:
It's not going to be Trump / Vance, because they're not awarding it to the same guy two years in a row no matter what, but
I think it's likely that whatever Time goes for will be a response towards the Trump admin's policies. They did this in 2017 in picking "journalists under attack."
It was Francis when he was chosen as pope because of the implications of a less conservative pope for the Catholic Church and Christianity as a whole - implications which have led to the church experiencing growth.
Either we see a pope to Francis's right (which sets up an angle of "Is The Catholic Church Bowing Towards Trump?"), or we see one around his same area or to his left (which sets up an angle of "The Catholic Church Is Not Bowing Towards Trump"), both of which have Implications.
Just a general vibe. It's decayed a bit, and i'd put it at about 30-40% now, if I'm being honest. I think I'm leaning more towards a "consolidated people being targeted by the Trump administration" type pick atp, but if they decide they DON'T want to go down that route this would be the most natural second choice.
@Marnix have we actually seen enough from the new pope to write an article about him, though?
Can we have "the president-elect (with or without vp-elect)" as a consolidated option, so that this market doesn't just become another "who will win" market?
@MattLashofSullivan No it's still a good answer! The newly elected president is sometimes the POTY the year after they are elected. Oh, I'll edit it to "the person elected president in 2024" to b clear to others though.
I'd like to nominate strikers/unions as a group