I've found that Manifold has a pretty consistent bias towards all things AI and betting against that tends to be profitable. I highly doubt "Person of the Year" would be given to a non-person. Given that Francis won Time POTY the year he was elected Pope and we now have the first American Pope, 18% for Leo XIV seems way too low. Imo Leo should be the highest option, followed by Jensen Huang and then Mamdani

@SentientTree Manifold AI bias, yes, but also don’t forget:

https://content.time.com/time/covers/0,16641,19830103,00.html

@JimHays that was very much hype too. We were all going to use computers to store our cooking recipes...

@SentientTree I would join you in fleecing this, but I am waay overexposed

@Joshua Could we please add Jeffrey Epstein? I honestly think it could be him. His name has dominated and continues to dominate headlines.

@BrunoJ make a separate market and I will bet on it

@Eliza

@BrunoJ Done

To people who are voting NO on AI and the pope, I am looking to exit my NO positions in the following markets (because of risk management, not because I think the probabilities are too low). You can get a better price on them than here.

Thank you for your attention.

I'll just note they will never get the chance to pick the first trillionaire again.

Who is that?

@JussiVilleHeiskanen that’s at least a few years off, so not sure why you’re commenting that in a 2025 closing market

@DavidHiggs Sh*t. Well, I only lost 40 mana. Thought Ellison went over the top. Must have in my usual addleheaded way confused his company and him or something...

@JussiVilleHeiskanen as of a week ago according to Forbes, Musk was over $100 billion above Ellison, and not himself at $500 billion yet

You have all forgotten the most important rule, AGAIN:

The Person Of The Year is the person who TIME believes will sell the most magazine covers.

That was never gonna be Altman over Taylor Swift, and if any of you think a Midwestern mom at the grocery store will buy a magazine because Jensen Huang is on it... God bless you.

@TiredCliche love how his percentage in this market likely exceeds the percentage of TIME readers who have the slightest idea who tf he is

@TiredCliche > That was never gonna be Altman over Taylor Swift

You might be slightly biased though.

(Not to say that AI people aren't over-represented at Manifold)

@TiredCliche I don’t think it’s gonna be him but that’s not a very strong argument. This was in 2021

This is why I think Gen Z is undervalued. It would make for a very flashy cover: very futuristic, very relatable.

@SqrtMinusOne I added that to my bio after making tons of mana predicting Swift would win POTY

@MachiNi Doesn't count, they do multiple covers for TIME100.

@TiredCliche do they don’t want to sell those magazines though?

@MachiNi no those ones are for tax write off purposes like warner bros discovery

@TiredCliche How do you think they are getting some kind of tax advantage from making magazines that don't sell?

They did give it to Andrew Grove in 1997 to represent the digital revolution. A Jensen Huang pick would be very analogous to that. I think a 10-15% probability would be reasonable.

@loops idk the same way that wbd gets a tax write off from not releasing movies that it made.

@TiredCliche Midwestern mom seeing Jeff Bezos Time POTY at checkout and snatching a copy off the rack

@ItsMe but was Grove topical, or a pick of a topical phenomenon in hindsight with the person?