This question resolves to the TIME 2025 Person of The Year. It uses consolidated answers to avoid having to predict who the major party nominees will be, or the exact wording of any abstract/group answers.
If you would like to add a new candidate or consolidated answer to the market, submit them in a comment below. If a comment gets enough support, I'll open the market to submissions so that you can add it and you'll get the unique trader bonuses.
Note that all consolidated answers must be mutually exclusive, so no more specific or general versions of existing options. The goal is to cleanly divide the probabilistic landscape into non-overlapping categories.
If multiple options do end up being true, then those options will resolve to an even split of 100%.
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I’m long on Netanyahu, I think 1.4% is too low. The country he runs has been determined to be committing genocide by the UN, most of the UN walks out on his speech, etc. There are countless other historical events that I could list here, not saying he’s the most likely but 1.4% is too low probability.
I hate predicting Leo, but knowing Time Magazine.
Some total nut, guaranteed. Although they did manage to choose sensibly once, Lex Friedman.
@Yakushi12345 For extra crazy points, it could be something like "AI CEOs and Politicians", where like Elon Musk counts for both, and like half of the other people count for one or the other
@Joshua remind me how this resolves in cases where there's a shared POTY between one person/category on this list and one person/category that is not listed among the options?
Like, let's say it's "Elon Musk and Caitlin Clark".
100% to Elon Musk? 50% to Elon and 50% to Other?
What about "Elon Musk and the Spirit of Capitalism"?
@bens It's the last sentence of the description: "If multiple options do end up being true, then those options will resolve to an even split of 100%."
Edit: Nvm, I guess that doesn't quite answer your question.
@bens I believe the hypothetical ruling two years sgo is that if two specific named individuals win and only one is listed in the market, then it resolves 50% to them and 50% to Other. If it's a named individual and an unlisted group or concept, it resolves 100% to the named individual.
Might regret it but, pushing AI down a little, partly just think 28 is high, but also the risk of it being a split makes it less risk to bet against.
Could easily see "the ai builders" or "tech ceos" and it features multiple of the listed candidates. Also not sure the actual cultural impact is big enough this year, even though it is talked about plenty.