(Before 2030) How will China actually initiate the annexation of Taiwan?
15
1kṀ6362030
62%
None (no direct annexation attempt)
5%
Formal ultimatum -- China will formally request for talks to discuss annexation ("or else")
6%
An small incident (whether accidental or planned) snowballs into a full scale conflict
17%
Direct hostilities -- Surprise large scale military action (blockade, direct attack, etc.)
10%
Closes end of this year (2024). Resolves when China does something or in 2030.
If you think 'other' please say what you think in the comments.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000Sort by:
People are also trading
Related questions
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030?
34% chance
Will China fully annex Taiwan before 2053?
65% chance
Will China invade Taiwan before 2030?
41% chance
Will China invade Taiwan by EOY 2030
40% chance
Will China invade Taiwan by 2035?
58% chance
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2100?
53% chance
When will China invade Taiwan?
By 2063, will the Republic of China annex any territory in the mainland?
19% chance
Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before 2030?
46% chance
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2026?
14% chance