(Before 2030) How will China actually initiate the annexation of Taiwan?
13
1kแน5822030
58%
None (no direct annexation attempt)
5%
Formal ultimatum -- China will formally request for talks to discuss annexation ("or else")
6%
An small incident (whether accidental or planned) snowballs into a full scale conflict
18%
Direct hostilities -- Surprise large scale military action (blockade, direct attack, etc.)
12%
Closes end of this year (2024). Resolves when China does something or in 2030.
If you think 'other' please say what you think in the comments.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
1,000Sort by:
Related questions
Related questions
If China invades Taiwan will there be direct military involvement from the US by EOY 2030
64% chance
Will China begin an invasion of Taiwan by 2028?
20% chance
Will China fully annex Taiwan before 2053?
26% chance
Will China invade Taiwan before 2030?
38% chance
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030?
33% chance
Will China invade Taiwan by 2035?
45% chance
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2100?
50% chance
Will China invade Taiwan by 2025?
7% chance
Will China invade Taiwan by 2025?
8% chance
By 2063, will the Republic of China annex any territory in the mainland?
19% chance