Which countries will stop being "communist" by 2040?
Which countries will stop being "communist" by 2040?
15
1kṀ7552040
49%
China
50%
Vietnam
60%
Cuba
56%
North Korea
52%
Laos
It resolves based on this wikipedia article https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_communist_states
if a situation similar to what North Korea has no where it shows them being half communist it resolves no
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
Will any country implement an UBI (universal basic income) before 2040?
68% chance
Will any of the following Western countries abandon democracy by 2030?
24% chance
Will China still be a communist country on the following dates
What countries will the UN stop recognizing by 2030
Will a socialist or communist revolution happen in a NATO country by 2030?
14% chance
Which of these nations will experience a successful coup d'etat before 2040?
Will any of the following Western countries' legislatures be majority controlled by explicitly fascist or communist political parties before 2030?
29% chance
Will the majority of Western democracies cease to be de facto democratic by 2034?
10% chance
Will Cuba still be a communist country on the following dates
Will any of the following Western countries experience a successful coup by 2030?
13% chance