Which of the following independence movements will be successful before 2030?
Mini
7
606
2030
76%
Bougainville
·
5mo
76%
Somaliland
·
5mo
44%
Western Sahara / SADR
·
5mo
34%
Transnistria
·
5mo
30%
Scotland
·
5mo
30%
Kurdistan (any)
·
5mo

In order to be successful, an independence movement must result in an entity with territory and its own government and de facto independence, with recognition by at least one UN member state. Recognition by non-member states does not count, but only a single recognition is needed. A movement resolves as successful even if it later loses recognition or self-governance before the 2030 deadline.

For example, Abkhazia would already resolve as YES because of its recognition by Russia and others. Transnistria would not currently resolve YES because it is only recognized by Abkhazia and South Ossetia, which are not UN member states, but would resolve YES if later recognized by Russia or another UN member state before the deadline.

Governments-in-exile do not count, even if they are recognized, because they do not have de facto control of any territory. If an independence movement becomes part of a new state as part of a federation of other movements, that counts as a success. A movement which joins another country rather than becoming independent does not count. For example, if a campaign to unify Northern Ireland with the Republic of Ireland succeeded, that would not qualify, unless there was an intermediate period of de facto independence and recognition.

I've provided some initial answers, but there are many more active independence movements. Please add others.

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