Will the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) collapse by 2030? | Manifold

Will the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) collapse by 2030?

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A recent paper in Nature Communications https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-39810-w predicts that the AMOC will collapse between 2025-2095 with a 95% confidence interval. Given recent drastic shifts in climate indicators, what is the likelihood that AMOC will collapse in the first 5 years of the paper's predicted range, by 2030?

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@traders unresolved and reopened. Apologies for the long delay on that.

Should this be "before 2030" or "before or during 2030"? I haven't read the paper.

@EvanDaniel I interpret "the first five years of [2025-2095]" as "before 2030".

@fwbt That was my interpretation as well, hopefully if that's wrong someone will explain why with reference to the paper text. I'm mostly just noting as mod that it's a common point of confusion whether the word "by" means "before" or "before or including".

@mods an old market, but this was misresolved

predictedYES

Why did this resolve? There is no answer to this yet

predictedNO

Why did this resolve?

Outlook still seems to be relatively optimistic. We'll just have to see.

predictedNO

Does this have to close so early?

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Related questions

Will the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) collapse before the end of 2050?

Will the Gulf Stream system (Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation) collapse before end of 2030?

Will the North Atlantic Current collapse before 2030?

Will the Gulf Stream system (Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation) collapse before end of 2025?

Is the Gulf Stream going to collapse before 2030

Will any G20 member government collapse by end 2030?

Will society collapse by 2040?

Will China collapse before 2030

Will there be an Arctic Blue Ocean Event by 2030?

BANK insolvent before April 2026

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