Resolution criteria
This market resolves to YES if, prior to January 1, 2030 (11:59:59 PM ET), the "Make America Great Again" (MAGA) movement or its primary formal entities are broadly acknowledged by major consensus to have dissolved, disbanded, or ceased active operation.
Because "MAGA" is an informal political movement rather than a single corporate body, the creator should specify the precise benchmark for dissolution. In the absence of creator clarification, this market will resolve according to the following objective proxy criteria:
Official PAC / Committee Dissolution: The primary Federal Election Commission (FEC) registered federal committee using the MAGA brand (e.g., Make America Great Again Inc.) files a formal termination report with the FEC and ceases all political disbursements and operations, without a successor MAGA-branded committee taking its place.
Public Consensus / Formal Declaration: Donald Trump or designated leadership of the MAGA movement publicly declares the formal end or dissolution of the movement, confirmed by coverage from at least three major news organizations (e.g., Associated Press, Reuters, The Wall Street Journal).
If neither condition is met by December 31, 2029 at 11:59:59 PM ET, or if MAGA persists as a prominent faction/platform in U.S. politics, this market resolves to NO.
Background
"Make America Great Again" originated as Donald Trump's primary 2016 campaign slogan and evolved into a broader political movement within the Republican Party, supported by organized fundraising entities such as the super PAC Make America Great Again Inc. and the 501(c)(4) organization Make America Great Again Policies.
Assessing whether a decentralized political movement "dissolves" presents significant ambiguity, as political movements often fade, rebrand, or fracture rather than officially terminating. Traders should monitor the operational status of core MAGA-branded political action committees registered with the FEC and public statements regarding the faction's continuation post-presidential tenure.
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