Will any G20 member government collapse by 2030?

Any member currently in the G20 qualifies, including the EU itself but not any EU countries that don't have independent membership.

YES if any member does any of the following:

  • ceases to exist

  • becomes a government in exile, losing actual control over territory

  • is annexed by another nation or entity and loses sovereign status


  • minor name changes

  • change in government format or ruling party (Roman Republic -> Roman Empire)

  • partial loss of territory

  • civil war, so long as one faction retains the original identity

Otherwise resolves NO at the end of 2030.

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The countries are Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, South Korea, Turkey, the United Kingdom (UK), and the United States