Will any G20 member government collapse by end 2030?
Standard
21
Ṁ5152031
23%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Any member currently in the G20 qualifies, including the EU itself but not any EU countries that don't have independent membership.
YES if any member does any of the following:
ceases to exist
becomes a government in exile, losing actual control over territory
is annexed by another nation or entity and loses sovereign status
Irrelevant:
minor name changes
change in government format or ruling party (Roman Republic -> Roman Empire)
partial loss of territory
civil war, so long as one faction retains the original identity
Otherwise resolves NO at the end of 2030.
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