The Gulf Stream is a key provider of the warmth that keeps the UK and other nations in Europe warmer than countries on equal latitudes. It keeps summers warm and winters mild. If it were to collapse, there is the potential countries such as the UK could match its weather patterns of countries such as Canada. This could have catastrophic effects for not only the agricultural industry and economy but also for the ecosystem found within North western Europe.
Given the news of rapidly changing ocean changes due to many factors which range from CO2 emissions and its consequences, reduction of oceanic SO2 emissions by commercial freighters and changes in the ocean stream patterns, it is likely we could see some kind of shift in the Atlantic streams. Will this include the collapse of the Gulf Stream as we know it today?
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@RobertCousineau I would suggest that if the evidence arises that the Gulf Stream shifts away from Europe and we begin to see a continual and noticeable decline in average monthly temperatures or an increase in weather instability. If I was to give some points of evidence, I’d say we look for any statistically significant difference in temperature. To figure out an exact figure and timeframe would require me to model it, which I probably wouldn’t be successful at.
TL;DR it’s difficult to slap a straight timeframe and figure. If a model or research piece that becomes recognised as legitimate shows there has been significant change due to a shift Or something like the AMOC failing along with reports of weather changes then we can consider it to have collapsed from its current form. The effect must be detrimental however. It’s not a collapse if it isn’t profound.
Is that any use or just a bunch of waffle? Hope it helps
@TristanChapman I definitely get that it's difficult. I personally am not comfortable betting on the market though (in any way other than all on yes, which feels wrong) with criteria of "any statistically significant reduction in temperature that becomes recognized as legitimate", as I feel the current state of "accepted as legitimate" climate research does not match the data.
@RobertCousineau That is fair. Climate science is often full of strong, contradictory interpretations by the scientists themselves. Let’s say a 3-8*C drop or more in average air temperature within the space of a year. This would match some models based on a complete AMOC collapse
No. The Gulf stream cannot collapse unless the Earth stops spinning. https://youtu.be/tnVWUIhQ8dE
Now, the AMOC may collapse, but that isn't at question here. This should resolve no immediately.
@RyanBrown I understand that your point is that it cannot collapse in a literal sense and I agree. But in the sense of this question, it is posed towards the effects more so than the physics of the stream. The idea is whether or not it will no longer act in the way it does to warm Europe. In essence a collapse of the system that we will expect. It will not physically collapse, just move. But ultimately that is what we care about.
While I appreciate the clarification in terms of accuracy, I was going for a more colloquial and accessible method. I’m that sense, the clarification will simply be pedantic to those who do not or cannot understand the science behind these systems. Once again, it’s the effects they care about
@RyanBrown Also just an excerpt from the description:
“it is likely we could see some kind of shift in the Atlantic streams. Will this include the collapse of the Gulf Stream as we know it today?”
The clarification you made was noted beforehand just without mentioning the AMOC to ensure the question remains accessible.