Will the Gulf Stream system (Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation) collapse before end of 2030?
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Plus
32
Ṁ2005
2030
11%
chance

Context:

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/jul/25/gulf-stream-could-collapse-as-early-as-2025-study-suggests

The Gulf Stream system could collapse as soon as 2025, a new study suggests. The shutting down of the vital ocean currents, called the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (Amoc) by scientists, would bring catastrophic climate impacts.

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It probably wouldn’t change your resolution but the AMOC is not the Gulf Stream, it’s just a subsystem of it. So the AMOC could collapse but the Gulf Stream basically never will unless the earth stops spinning.

predicts YES

It seems like there could be a lot of ambiguity here. What if it substantially slows down but hasn't stopped? or the flow pattern changes such that it's still there but quite different from before?

@Ansel Good point - My understanding is that if it is indeed slowing down (that is also debated) it will reach a tipping point where it will "collapse" as in cease to exist as we know it, either by stopping or the flow pattern diverting significantly. My assumption is that such an event would cause obvious climate effects and headlines that would mean the question resolves to YES.

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