To avoid ambiguity, apparent prior restraint doesn't count; the model must be available to some set of users and then have reduced availability. The reduced availability must be on-surface-appearance-obviously due to US government action.

Roughly even odds — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 51% chance (3 traders, as of Jun 13, 2026).

Will the US gov't take action that causes a non-Anthropic company to restrict availability of a model in 2026?

Will the US enact export controls for some generative AI software before 2027?

+69% 1d90% chance

Will Anthropic legally challenge the US government directive to suspend access to Fable?

+11% 1d61% chance

Will OpenAI, Anthropic or Google cut API access to their text models, in 2026?

7% chance

Will OpenAI delay OR withdraw a model release due to demands by the US US government by EOY 2026?

27% chance

Will the US government restrict access to an OpenAI model in 2026?

-24% 1d26% chance

Will any OpenAI models be restricted to US in 2026?

-20% 1d30% chance

Will a government mandate restrict access to an OpenAI or xAI model on security or safety grounds before 2027?

-12% 1d38% chance

Will the US implement software export controls for frontier AI models by 2028?

77% chance

Will the US government take control of Anthropic or its major technologies before 2030?

20% chance

Will the US government functionally seize control of Anthropic by EOY2027?

15% chance