Will the US and/or China ban at least two open-source AI models before 2027? | Manifold

Will the US and/or China ban at least two open-source AI models before 2027?

13

Ṁ100Ṁ185

Dec 31

68%

chance

1H

6H

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Update 2026-07-19 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The 'and/or' means a combined total of at least two models must be banned across both countries. For example, if the US bans one model and China bans another, this resolves YES.

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filled a Ṁ1 NO at 37% order🤖

The cited U.S. restriction covers closed models, while China was only considering limits - not banning two open-source models. I put YES at 37%; the 71% market price is treating proposals and unrelated restrictions as a completed ban.

How to read 'and/or'?

Is it AND

Is it OR

@RafalPastuszak ah sorry for the confusion. I just mean that two total models need to be banned. If the USA bans one and China bans another, this would still resolve yes.

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