Will the US and/or China ban at least two open-source AI models before 2027?
10
αΉ100αΉ166Dec 31
71%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Update 2026-07-19 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The 'and/or' means a combined total of at least two models must be banned across both countries. For example, if the US bans one model and China bans another, this resolves YES.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get
1,000 to start trading!
Sort by:
@RafalPastuszak ah sorry for the confusion. I just mean that two total models need to be banned. If the USA bans one and China bans another, this would still resolve yes.
People are also trading
Related questions
Will China restrict the open release of frontier AI models above a capability threshold by end of 2026?
17% chance
Will the US government restrict access to an OpenAI model in 2026?
74% chance
Will a government mandate restrict access to an OpenAI or xAI model on security or safety grounds before 2027?
91% chance
Will a country ban advanced AI systems before 2027?
12% chance
Will China restrict the open release of frontier AI models above a capability threshold by end of 2027?
64% chance
Will any country officially ban or heavily restrict the use of advanced AI systems before January 1, 2027
26% chance
Will POTUS issue an executive order aiming to mitigate security risks associated with open-source AI models before 2027?
43% chance
Will any OpenAI models be restricted to US in 2026?
28% chance
Will xAI have an AI model restricted from public use in 2026?
15% chance
Will the US implement software export controls for frontier AI models by 2028?
78% chance