Will Ukraine regain control of Kherson by the end of 2022?
WorldWarsUkraine-Russia warUkraine Counteroffensive
Basic
185
Ṁ53k
resolved Nov 19
Resolved
YES

Resolves YES if https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10850/date-of-ukrainian-liberation-of-kherson/ answer is in 2022.

Multiple-choice version of this market:

Almost exact duplicates:

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Why hasn’t this resolved yet?

predicted YES

@Treldman It mirrors Metaculus, which has a clause, paraphrasing: “resolves 7 days after a positive announcement from ISW or similar sources”

predicted YES

@yaboi69 That is a strange market to mirror because that is about a specific date of control, not control before a deadline.

@BTE No, it makes perfect sense to me. Binary question is just whether the date answer is in 2022. The market description is absolutely clear.

predicted YES

Made a series of markets for recapture by different dates:

predicted YES

Here are some more similar markets for you to bet on:

predicted YES

Trade. I meant trade.

predicted YES

Since this market is so popular, here is another one:

And another one about Lysychansk:
https://manifold.markets/Yev/will-ukraine-regain-control-of-lysy

predicted NO

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/08/29/ukraine-launches-counter-offensive-retake-kherson-russia/

Metaculus predicts 27%
predicted NO

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