🏅 Top traders

i leave for 3 days and get megascrewed. oh well :(

Should be resolved as YES.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/us-urges-ukraine-be-open-talks-with-russia-washington-post-2022-11-06/

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2022/11/11/russia-ukraine-live-updates-kyiv-forces-close-in-on-kherson

@hardy While I think you are probably right, with such high-profile markets it's best to err on the side of caution and wait some more time before resolving.

may still be possible to resolve this as (unlike the linked metaculus question) there's no "7 day window" specified in the description

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10850/date-of-ukrainian-liberation-of-kherson/

Metaculs has resolved.

@brp No it hasn't

For the purposes of this question, Ukraine will "control" Kherson if they have de facto control of over 50% of the city's administrative area for at least 7 days. The resolution date will be the end of this 7-day period, to the closest approximation based on available reports.

Insight Prediction now at 96%;)

https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1590729463884808192?s=12&t=_ds5w16ChnsgTSGgUsYbaQ

@NiclasKupper "Ukrainian forces are quickly retaking towns across the front in Kherson Oblast."

https://facteroid.com/timeline/5726

I'm high on copium. I doubt Russia completely clears out of Kherson any time soon.

@Thagliou I doubt the military cost will allow that rationale

The Russian command announced the retreat from Kherson
https://meduza-io.translate.goog/news/2022/11/09/rossiyskoe-komandovanie-ob-yavilo-ob-otstuplenii-iz-hersona?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp

@IvanK I saw some hearsay somewhere that this was a feint to try and bait the Ukraine forces into the city

@SamuelRichardson So far in this war, has anything surprising ever happened in Russia's favour?

@MichaelWheatley Yeah, I struggle to believe it as well. Seems more like the kind of thing you'd come up with as you're fleeing the city. "Jokes on them, I'm only pretending to retreat!". Sure.

@SamuelRichardson It does seem they are preparing the public for a withdrawal. There is satellite imagery which confirms it. Might be a fighting withdrawal...

Commanders have allegedly fled the city: https://www.stuff.co.nz/world/europe/300730977/putin-faces-humiliation-as-commanders-flee-kherson-ukraine

Real money market at Insight around 40%, with a slightly earlier deadline. https://insightprediction.com/m/73525/will-ukraine-control-kherson-city-on-december-25th-2022

@DouglasCampbell now at 85%

@LeonardoKroger Yes, what a difference a week makes! This is an exciting one.

More hearsay but I'm convinced!

https://www.youtube.com/embed/NXvkHrxOSAM?autoplay=1

Made a series of markets for recapture by different dates:

Buying more of this, since it was the lowest of the three markets... and seemed unreasonably low, given recent news of the collapse of the Russian front northeast of Kherson.

@Endovior Yup that was my sense also. Where are you reading about the pace of movement on this front?

@NathanpmYoung Reddit, mostly. Actual live news goes to Telegram first, but is usually in either Ukrainian or Russian (neither of which I speak), but translations of interesting posts regularly show up on war-related subreddits.