Will Ukraine recapture the city of Kherson by the end of 2022?
resolved Nov 12

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i leave for 3 days and get megascrewed. oh well :(

predicted YES

@hardy While I think you are probably right, with such high-profile markets it's best to err on the side of caution and wait some more time before resolving.

predicted YES

may still be possible to resolve this as (unlike the linked metaculus question) there's no "7 day window" specified in the description

predicted YES

@brp No it hasn't

For the purposes of this question, Ukraine will "control" Kherson if they have de facto control of over 50% of the city's administrative area for at least 7 days. The resolution date will be the end of this 7-day period, to the closest approximation based on available reports.

Insight Prediction now at 96%;)

predicted YES

@NiclasKupper "Ukrainian forces are quickly retaking towns across the front in Kherson Oblast."


I'm high on copium. I doubt Russia completely clears out of Kherson any time soon.

@Thagliou I doubt the military cost will allow that rationale

predicted YES
predicted YES

@IvanK I saw some hearsay somewhere that this was a feint to try and bait the Ukraine forces into the city

predicted YES

@SamuelRichardson So far in this war, has anything surprising ever happened in Russia's favour?

predicted YES

@MichaelWheatley Yeah, I struggle to believe it as well. Seems more like the kind of thing you'd come up with as you're fleeing the city. "Jokes on them, I'm only pretending to retreat!". Sure.

@SamuelRichardson It does seem they are preparing the public for a withdrawal. There is satellite imagery which confirms it. Might be a fighting withdrawal...

Real money market at Insight around 40%, with a slightly earlier deadline. https://insightprediction.com/m/73525/will-ukraine-control-kherson-city-on-december-25th-2022

predicted YES

@DouglasCampbell now at 85%

@LeonardoKroger Yes, what a difference a week makes! This is an exciting one.

predicted YES
predicted YES

Made a series of markets for recapture by different dates:

Buying more of this, since it was the lowest of the three markets... and seemed unreasonably low, given recent news of the collapse of the Russian front northeast of Kherson.

predicted YES

@Endovior Yup that was my sense also. Where are you reading about the pace of movement on this front?

predicted YES

@NathanpmYoung Reddit, mostly. Actual live news goes to Telegram first, but is usually in either Ukrainian or Russian (neither of which I speak), but translations of interesting posts regularly show up on war-related subreddits.

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