Will Ukraine recapture the city of Kherson by the end of 2022?
resolved Nov 12

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NoRespect avatar

i leave for 3 days and get megascrewed. oh well :(

Jenny avatar
Jennypredicted YES

@hardy While I think you are probably right, with such high-profile markets it's best to err on the side of caution and wait some more time before resolving.

AndyMartin avatar
Andy Martinpredicted YES

may still be possible to resolve this as (unlike the linked metaculus question) there's no "7 day window" specified in the description

brp avatar
Bjornbought Ṁ10 of YES
Jenny avatar
Jennypredicted YES

@brp No it hasn't

For the purposes of this question, Ukraine will "control" Kherson if they have de facto control of over 50% of the city's administrative area for at least 7 days. The resolution date will be the end of this 7-day period, to the closest approximation based on available reports.

DouglasCampbell avatar
Douglas Campbellbought Ṁ55 of YES

Insight Prediction now at 96%;)

nic_kup avatar
nicpredicted YES

@NiclasKupper "Ukrainian forces are quickly retaking towns across the front in Kherson Oblast."

NGK avatar
NGKbought Ṁ54 of NO


I'm high on copium. I doubt Russia completely clears out of Kherson any time soon.

LeonardoKr avatar
Leonardobought Ṁ150 of YES

@Thagliou I doubt the military cost will allow that rationale

Jenny avatar
Jennypredicted YES
SamuelRichardson avatar
Sampredicted YES

@IvanK I saw some hearsay somewhere that this was a feint to try and bait the Ukraine forces into the city

MichaelWheatley avatar
Michael Wheatleypredicted YES

@SamuelRichardson So far in this war, has anything surprising ever happened in Russia's favour?

SamuelRichardson avatar
Sampredicted YES

@MichaelWheatley Yeah, I struggle to believe it as well. Seems more like the kind of thing you'd come up with as you're fleeing the city. "Jokes on them, I'm only pretending to retreat!". Sure.

DouglasCampbell avatar
Douglas Campbell

@SamuelRichardson It does seem they are preparing the public for a withdrawal. There is satellite imagery which confirms it. Might be a fighting withdrawal...

DouglasCampbell avatar
Douglas Campbell

Real money market at Insight around 40%, with a slightly earlier deadline. https://insightprediction.com/m/73525/will-ukraine-control-kherson-city-on-december-25th-2022

LeonardoKr avatar
Leonardopredicted YES

@DouglasCampbell now at 85%

DouglasCampbell avatar
Douglas Campbell

@LeonardoKroger Yes, what a difference a week makes! This is an exciting one.

SamuelRichardson avatar
Sampredicted YES
jack avatar
Jackpredicted YES

Made a series of markets for recapture by different dates:

Gigacasting avatar
Gigacastingbought Ṁ10 of NO
Endovior avatar
Endoviorbought Ṁ100 of YES

Buying more of this, since it was the lowest of the three markets... and seemed unreasonably low, given recent news of the collapse of the Russian front northeast of Kherson.

NathanpmYoung avatar
Nathan Youngpredicted YES

@Endovior Yup that was my sense also. Where are you reading about the pace of movement on this front?

Endovior avatar
Endoviorpredicted YES

@NathanpmYoung Reddit, mostly. Actual live news goes to Telegram first, but is usually in either Ukrainian or Russian (neither of which I speak), but translations of interesting posts regularly show up on war-related subreddits.